Mogadiahsu, SOMALIA – In December 2022, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia made a bold declaration on Al-Jazeera’s Upfront show, promising that the militant group Al-Shabab would be eradicated from HirShabelle and GalMudug within two weeks. Fast forward to March 2024, and the reality on the ground starkly contradicts this pledge. Al-Shabab not only maintains control over more than half of HirShabelle but also contests the remainder, while continuing to hold sway over the eastern areas of GalMudug. This persistence of Al-Shabab’s influence raises critical questions about the Somali government’s strategy and its implications for the nation and its international partners.
Adding to the complexity of the military landscape, the Somali National Army (SNA) and the local militia, known as Macawisley, withdrew from the town of Bacadweyne in the southern part of the Mudug region yesterday. This move follows similar withdrawals from the cities of Caad and Camara, marking a significant shift in the country’s battle against the insurgent group Al-Shabab. These withdrawals underscore the challenges faced by government forces and allied militias, highlighting the difficulty of securing and holding territory against a resilient and strategically adept enemy.
Unrealistic Timelines and Their Implications
The national security advisor to the President, Hussein Moalim, echoed a similar sentiment a year after President Mohamud’s statement, asserting that Al-Shabab would be cleared from the mentioned regions by February 2024. Such commitments, while initially portraying a government willing to combat terrorism, now serve to underscore a troubling pattern of unrealistic expectations. The question that looms large is: Why is the Somali government setting these unattainable deadlines? It appears to be an attempt to project confidence and control, but nearly two years since the commencement of the offensive against Al-Shabab, these promises have only served to depict the government as lacking credibility and responsibility in the eyes of Somalia’s international allies.
The continuous overestimation of military success against Al-Shabab not only undermines the Somali government’s credibility but also risks alienating essential international partners. These allies are showing signs of fatigue in their support for a seemingly endless conflict. The strategy of making ambitious predictions and consistently failing to meet them necessitates a reassessment. Maintaining the support of international partners is crucial, and to do so, the government must adopt a more realistic and transparent approach to its military campaigns.
Compounding the issue is the Somali government’s focus on internal political maneuvers at the expense of the broader fight against Al-Shabab. The administration’s efforts to push through a constitutional amendment aimed at strengthening central power and ostensibly improving its reelection prospects have sparked controversy. This expenditure of political capital on internal disputes with domestic stakeholders raises questions about the government’s priorities and its commitment to the war against Al-Shabab. Such internal focus detracts from the necessary unified national effort to combat terrorism and secure the country.
Implications for Somalia and the Horn of Africa
The Somali government’s handling of the war against Al-Shabab and its internal political struggles have broader implications for the Horn of Africa and its geopolitical dynamics. The region, already fraught with security challenges and political instability, cannot afford the perpetuation of a significant terrorist threat. Moreover, the situation reflects on the complex interplay between domestic governance issues and counterterrorism efforts, highlighting the necessity for a cohesive strategy that addresses both internal political stability and external security threats.
For Somalia to navigate this critical juncture effectively, a recalibration of strategies is essential. The government must prioritize establishing realistic goals and timelines in its military campaigns, ensuring that these are grounded in the current reality on the ground and the capabilities of the Somali armed forces. Additionally, fostering a more inclusive political process that addresses the concerns of domestic stakeholders can help consolidate national unity, which is indispensable in the fight against Al-Shabab.
As Somalia continues its struggle against Al-Shabab, the lessons from the past two years in GalMudug and HirShabelle therefore underscore the importance of credibility, realistic goal-setting, and the need for a unified national approach. The government’s overambitious timelines and internal political battles have not only hindered progress but have also jeopardized the support of vital international partners. To secure Somalia’s future, a more measured, transparent, and inclusive strategy is imperative. Only through such an approach can Somalia hope to achieve lasting peace and security, both for its citizens and for the broader Horn of Africa region.
