Dhusamareb, SOMALIA – Today’s outbreak of intense fighting between the Ayr and Duduble clan militias near Dhusamareb, the capital of Galmudug state, has underscored the fragile nature of Somalia’s security situation. These militias were initially armed as part of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s controversial strategy to mobilize clan-based forces against Al-Shabab. This latest eruption of violence serves as a stark reminder of the inherent risks in arming clan militias.
The clan militia strategy, championed by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, was born out of desperation in the face of Al-Shabab’s resilience and the shortcomings of the Somali National Army (SNA). The plan to arm clan militias was seen as a way to rapidly mobilize local forces against Al-Shabab, leveraging existing clan structures and local knowledge to combat the terrorist group. Initially, this approach showed some promise, with the Ayr and Duduble clan militias fighting side by side against Al-Shabab in late 2023.
However, the current clash between these same militias near Dhusamareb highlights the inherent volatility of this strategy. The transition from temporary allies against a common enemy to adversaries fighting each other underscores the fragility of clan alliances and the potential for armed clan militias to exacerbate existing tensions rather than contribute to long-term stability.
This turn of events raises serious questions about the wisdom of arming clan militias as a counter-terrorism strategy. While the initial goal was to create a united front against Al-Shabab, the reality has proven far more complex, with clan dynamics and historical rivalries reasserting themselves once the immediate threat subsided.
Clan Dynamics in Somali Politics
The fighting between the Ayr and Duduble clan militias near Dhusamareb is a stark reminder of the enduring power of clan dynamics in Somali politics and society. Despite efforts to build a unified national identity and state institutions, clan affiliations continue to play a significant role in shaping alliances, conflicts, and power dynamics across the country.
The decision to arm clan militias as part of the fight against Al-Shabab, while perhaps expedient in the short term, has had the unintended consequence of reinforcing and militarizing these clan identities. By providing weapons and legitimacy to clan-based armed groups, the government has inadvertently strengthened the very forces that often work against national unity and state-building efforts.
This latest outbreak of clan-based violence also highlights the challenges of reconciling traditional clan structures with modern state institutions. While clan systems have historically provided a form of governance and conflict resolution in Somalia, they can also act as a centrifugal force, pulling against efforts to establish a strong, centralized state.
The Impact on Counter-Terrorism Efforts
The clashes between clan militias near Dhusamareb have significant implications for Somalia’s ongoing counter-terrorism efforts. These militias were initially armed and mobilized as part of the strategy to combat Al-Shabab, but their current infighting diverts attention and resources away from this primary objective.
This situation could potentially benefit Al-Shabab, which has demonstrated a remarkable ability to exploit divisions and instability within Somali society. The terrorist group could use the chaos created by clan conflicts to regroup, recruit, and potentially reclaim territory lost in previous operations.
Moreover, the fighting between clan militias risks undermining public support for the government’s counter-terrorism strategy. If the arming of clan militias is seen as exacerbating conflicts rather than enhancing security, it could erode trust in the government’s ability to effectively address the threat posed by Al-Shabab and other extremist groups.
