Mogadishu, SOMALIA – Clashes between Danab and Macawisley forces yesterday in El Baraf, Middle Shabelle region, are not only a serious setback for Somalia’s efforts against Al-Shabab but also a microcosm of the broader security and political challenges facing the country. These recurring clashes have occurred against the backdrop of a stalled government offensive, resurgent Al-Shabab activity, political instability, and a deeply fractured security apparatus, all of which have contributed to the erosion of public trust in the government’s ability to bring about lasting peace and stability.
To make matters worse, a local security official in El Baraf accused the Danab forces of entering El Baraf on their way to Jowhar and attempting to disarm the Macawisley forces there. This incident suggests a critical lack of identification of friend or foe in the area, exacerbating the situation since the government relies heavily on the Macawisley, who do not wear uniforms.
This misidentification and subsequent confrontation highlight the severe communication and coordination gaps within Somalia’s security forces. Such incidents undermine the collective efforts against Al-Shabab and erode the fragile trust between different factions, further complicating the already challenging task of achieving a unified and effective counter Al-Shabab strategy.
Contextualizing the Clashes
To fully understand the significance of the Danab and Macawisley clashes in El Baraf, it is essential to situate them within the broader context of Somalia’s ongoing struggles. The political landscape has been marred by controversies and disputes, such as the contentious constitutional amendment process pushed by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the subsequent opposition from key stakeholders, including regional states like Puntland. This political turmoil has diverted attention and resources away from the fight against Al-Shabab, while also undermining the government’s legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of the public.
Moreover, the FGS has been accused of engaging in divisive tactics and undermining the autonomy of federal member states, as evidenced by the alleged attempts to destabilize Puntland and support anti-democratic forces like the Aran Jaan group. These actions have strained the relationship between the central government and the regions, further complicating efforts to achieve a unified and coordinated approach to counter-insurgency and peacebuilding.
The Danab and Macawisley clashes in El Baraf are a direct manifestation of these broader issues, as they highlight the lack of unity and coherence within the security apparatus. The fact that two key government forces are fighting each other, rather than focusing on their common enemy, Al-Shabab, starkly reminds us of the deep-rooted challenges that need addressing for Somalia to achieve lasting peace and stability.
The Stalled Offensive
The clashes between Danab and Macawisley forces have taken place against the backdrop of a stalled government offensive against Al-Shabab, which has been ineffective for over six months. This has allowed the terrorist group to regroup, consolidate its control, and expand its influence in Middle Shabelle and other parts of the country, including the neighboring Hiran region in Hirshabelle and parts of Galmudug.
Al-Shabab’s resurgence is a testament to the group’s resilience and adaptability, as well as its ability to exploit the weaknesses and divisions within the Somali security forces. Despite the efforts of the government and its international partners to degrade Al-Shabab’s capabilities, the group has demonstrated a remarkable ability to withstand military pressure and capitalize on the security vacuums created by the faltering offensive.
This resurgence has had a devastating impact on the government’s stated goal of liberating Middle Shabelle, Hiran, and parts of Galmudug from Al-Shabab’s control. The fact that the group continues to hold more than half of Hirshabelle and a significant portion of Galmudug, despite almost two years of sustained military efforts, is a clear indication of the limitations of the current strategy and its implementation.
A Failing Strategy and a Fractured Security Apparatus
The Danab and Macawisley clashes and the resurgence of Al-Shabab are symptomatic of the broader failings in Somalia’s counter-insurgency strategy and the fractured nature of its security apparatus. The current approach, which relies heavily on military means and the use of elite units like Danab, has proven insufficient in delivering lasting results, as it fails to address the underlying drivers of instability and insecurity.
Moreover, the lack of coordination and coherence among the various security actors, as evidenced by the recurring incidents of infighting, has further undermined the effectiveness of the government’s efforts. This fragmentation extends beyond the clashes between Danab and Macawisley forces, reflecting broader tensions and rivalries among the Somali National Army (SNA), police, and regional security forces.
Political tensions between the FGS and the federal member states, along with the complex clan dynamics that shape Somali society, exacerbate these divisions. The failure to address these underlying issues and build a unified and professional security apparatus has created a permissive environment for Al-Shabab to exploit, allowing the group to maintain its influence and carry out attacks with impunity.
