Speaking at the Oslo Forum under the theme “Mediation Against All Odds,” President of Somalia Hassan Sheikh Mohamud expressed his government’s readiness to negotiate with the terrorist group Al-Shabab, stating, “we were ready to talk with them yesterday and the day before yesterday.” This marked a significant shift from his earlier stance, which had emphasized the need to weaken the group militarily before engaging in any dialogue. The president’s change in position raises questions about the effectiveness of his policies and the mounting challenges facing his administration as it grapples with the complex realities of the Al-Shabab threat.
A Stark Contrast to Initial Promises and Objectives
President Mohamud’s remarks at the Oslo Forum stand in stark contrast to the ambitious goals and promises he outlined shortly after his election. In the early days of his presidency, Mohamud had confidently declared his intention to liberate the regions of GalMudug and HirShabelle from Al-Shabab’s control by January 2023, hold local elections across Somalia by June 2024, and rid the Southwest and Jubaland regions of the terrorist group’s presence by mid-2024.
However, as the months and years have passed, it has become increasingly clear that these objectives have remained largely unfulfilled. The president’s failure to deliver on his promises has not only undermined public trust in his leadership but also raised doubts about the government’s capacity to effectively address the Al-Shabab threat. The group continues to maintain a strong presence in various parts of the country, launching deadly attacks and retaking territory and bases that had previously been liberated by Somali forces and their international partners.
President Mohamud’s call for negotiations with Al-Shabab appears to be more of an admission of defeat than a strategic move. The timing of his remarks, which come as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) prepares to withdraw and the United States ends its support for the Danab special forces, including the suspension of food rations, suggests that the president is speaking from a position of weakness and desperation.
The looming departure of ATMIS and the scaling back of U.S. assistance have raised concerns about the ability of Somali security forces to maintain the hard-fought gains made against Al-Shabab in recent years. The group has already demonstrated its resilience and adaptability, seizing opportunities to reclaim lost territory and reassert its influence in areas where the government’s presence is weak or contested.
A Reflection of Broader Failures and Challenges
President Mohamud’s U-turn on Al-Shabab negotiations is a reflection of the broader failures and challenges that have plagued his administration. Since coming to power, the president has struggled to deliver on his promises of security, stability, and good governance, leaving many Somalis disillusioned and frustrated with the lack of progress.
One of the most glaring failures has been the government’s inability to hold promised local elections in June 2024 and changed the Constitution without much consultation, which has undermined the legitimacy of the current administration and fueled political tensions and instability. The president’s controversial push for a “technical extension” of his term, coupled with the National Consultative Council’s endorsement of constitutional changes that could pave the way for a further extension, has raised concerns about his commitment to democratic principles and the rule of law.
Moreover, the president’s handling of key security challenges, such as the Danab rations scandal and the allegations of nepotism and favoritism within the military, has eroded public confidence in his leadership and the government’s ability to effectively combat Al-Shabab. The suspension of U.S. food rations to Somalia’s Danab forces, following revelations of massive corruption and the theft of aid by senior officers, has dealt a significant blow to the morale and operational readiness of this critical unit.
President Mohamud’s call for negotiations appears to be less a strategic move and more an admission of the administration’s faltering position. The timing of this shift, amidst a backdrop of dwindling international support, suggests a government grappling with desperation rather than operating from a position of strength. The broader failures and challenges of his tenure—from unfulfilled electoral promises and constitutional changes that bypassed widespread consultation to corruption and mismanagement within the military—have further eroded public trust and confidence in his leadership.
