Mogadishu, SOMALIA – President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Eid al-Fitr speech last night, in which he declared his government’s commitment to conducting one-person, one-vote (1P1V) elections by May 2026 and professed to be a champion of federalism, has brought his performance in these areas into focus. Although his statements might seem encouraging at first, a closer analysis exposes discrepancies and potential obstacles that could detract from the authenticity of his pledges.
The Complexities of Implementing 1P1V Elections in Somalia
President Hassan Sheikh’s promise of 1P1V elections at the end of his term in May 2026 raises several questions about the feasibility of such an undertaking. Given the current political and security landscape in Somalia, the implementation of direct elections across the entire country appears to be a daunting task.
One of the primary obstacles is the significant presence of Al-Shabab, a militant group that still maintains control over large swathes of the country. This poses a severe security threat and could hinder the ability to conduct free and fair elections in these areas. Additionally, the non-recognition of President Hassan Sheikh’s government by Somaliland and Puntland further complicates the matter. Without the participation and cooperation of these regions, the legitimacy of any nationwide election would be called into question.
Furthermore, the logistical challenges of organizing and conducting 1P1V elections in a country with limited infrastructure and resources cannot be overlooked. Ensuring the safety of voters, maintaining the integrity of the electoral process, and providing equal access to polling stations across the country would require significant planning, coordination, and support from the international community.
Examining President Hassan Sheikh’s Federalist Credentials
President Hassan Sheikh’s claim of being a champion of federalism, based on his role in the creation of Federal Member States (FMSs) during his previous tenure, also warrants closer examination. While it is true that several FMSs were established during his time in office, his actions and attitudes towards certain regions raise doubts about his genuine commitment to federalism.
One notable example is his initial resistance to the formation of Jubaland as an FMS. This opposition was likely rooted in the fact that Jubaland is predominantly inhabited by the Darod clan, which could potentially challenge his political influence. Although he eventually granted Jubaland an Interim Administration status, his reluctance to fully embrace its formation as an FMS suggests a selective approach to federalism based on political expediency rather than a principled commitment to decentralization.
The creation of HirShabelle, another FMS formed during President Hassan Sheikh’s previous term, also raises questions about the depth of his federalist convictions. The establishment of HirShabelle in a hasty manner, combining the incompatible regions of Middle Shabelle and Hiran without adequate consultation with local stakeholders, indicates a lack of genuine engagement with federalism principles. President Hassan Sheikh’s desire to secure political support for his re-election bid appears to have primarily motivated the formation of HirShabelle, rather than a sincere effort to empower regional administrations and promote decentralized governance.
Moreover, the creation of GalMudug as an FMS under President Hassan Sheikh’s watch further undermines his federalist credentials. According to the Constitution, an FMS should comprise two or more of the pre-1991 regions. Combining Galgaduud and only a portion of Mudug formed GalMudug, leaving the remaining part under Puntland’s jurisdiction. This unconstitutional move seems driven by the desire to give the Hawiye clan two FMSs instead of one, following the realization that Jubaland would become an FMS.
The financial dealings surrounding the creation of GalMudug also raise concerns about corruption and political favoritism. Allegedly, President Hassan Sheikh sold off government property on the outskirts of Mogadishu to fund the establishment of GalMudug and support the presidency of Abdikarim Guled, his fellow Dam Jadiid member and former minister of internal security during his first administration. These actions demonstrate a prioritization of tribal and political calculations over genuine federalist principles, further eroding President Hassan Sheikh’s credibility as a champion of decentralization.
The Centralization of Power and its Implications for Federalism
President Hassan Sheikh’s “we won’t stop for anyone” approach to governance and his refusal to empower FMSs in the constitutional amendment process raise serious concerns about his commitment to federalism. The centralization of power within the Presidency runs counter to the principles of decentralization and regional autonomy that form the bedrock of a true federalist system.
By excluding FMSs from the decision-making process and concentrating authority in the hands of the central government, President Hassan Sheikh risks alienating regional stakeholders and fueling resentment towards Mogadishu. This approach not only undermines the legitimacy of the federal government but also sets the stage for potential conflicts and political instability in the future.
A genuine commitment to federalism requires a willingness to engage with regional administrations, respect their autonomy, and foster a spirit of cooperation and power-sharing. It involves creating mechanisms for meaningful dialogue, consultation, and joint decision-making between the central government and FMSs. Unfortunately, President Hassan Sheikh’s actions and statements indicate a departure from these principles and raise doubts about his sincerity in embracing federalism.
Furthermore, if President Hassan Sheikh were truly committed to federalism, he would not actively seek to disempower the Parliament, which serves as a crucial tool through which FMSs can influence federal policy. The Parliament provides a platform for regional representatives to voice the concerns and aspirations of their constituents and shape national legislation. By weakening the role of Parliament, President Hassan Sheikh is effectively silencing the voices of the FMSs and undermining their ability to participate in the governance of the country.
The Potential Fallout from the New Constitution
As President Hassan Sheikh relentlessly pushes forward with the implementation of his new Constitution, it is crucial to confront the inevitable consequences of this move. The glaring lack of inclusivity in the constitutional amendment process, particularly the deliberate exclusion of FMSs, has already generated significant opposition and concern among various stakeholders, setting the stage for a tumultuous political future.
The imposition of a Constitution that blatantly lacks broad-based support and consensus will undoubtedly lead to further political fragmentation and instability. Regional administrations marginalized and excluded from the process will vehemently resist implementing the new Constitution, deepening the divide between the central government and the FMSs. This rift will not only paralyze the functioning of the federal system but also fuel resentment and hostility towards Mogadishu, eroding the very foundation of national unity.
Moreover, the attempt to implement a highly controversial Constitution in the lead-up to the 2026 elections will inevitably plunge Somalia into an unprecedented political crisis. The legitimacy of the elections and the acceptance of their results will be severely undermined if the constitutional framework is perceived as biased, unrepresentative, and forced upon the nation without consensus. This will create a fertile ground for disputes, protests, and even violence, as various factions and regions challenge the credibility of the electoral process and the government’s mandate.
Pursuing a unilateral approach to constitutional reform will inevitably result in disastrous fallout. The failure to engage in genuine dialogue, build consensus, and address the concerns of all stakeholders, including FMSs, will have severe and far-reaching consequences for Somalia’s political future, jeopardizing its prospects for lasting peace, stability, and development.
The path President Hassan Sheikh is currently pursuing is a recipe for disaster, and the warning signs are unmistakable. If he continues to disregard the voices of the FMSs, sideline the Parliament, and impose a Constitution that lacks legitimacy, he will plunge Somalia into a crisis of unprecedented proportions. He will tear apart the fabric of the nation and undo the hard-fought gains of recent years, setting the country back decades in its quest for unity and progress.
The stakes are too high, and the consequences of failure are too grave to ignore. The future of Somalia hangs in the balance, and the choices made by its leaders will determine whether the country descends into chaos and fragmentation or embarks on a path of dialogue, reconciliation, and unity. The implications of the new Constitution and the approach taken by President Hassan Sheikh will shape the political landscape of Somalia for years to come, and the nation cannot afford to get it wrong.
Conclusion
President Hassan Sheikh’s Eid al Fitr speech, while ostensibly promising, raises significant questions about the accuracy and feasibility of his claims regarding elections and federalism. The challenges posed by the presence of Al-Shabab, the non-recognition of his government by Somaliland and Puntland, and the logistical complexities of organizing nationwide elections cast doubt on the practicality of his 1P1V promise by May 2026.
Furthermore, his past actions and current stance on federalism reveal inconsistencies and a lack of genuine commitment to decentralization and regional autonomy. The selective approach to FMS formation, the hasty creation of HirShabelle, the unconstitutional establishment of GalMudug, and the exclusion of FMSs from the constitutional amendment process all undermine his credibility as a champion of federalism.
It is imperative for the government to prioritize inclusive governance, engage in meaningful dialogue with all stakeholders, and work towards building a consensus-based vision for the country’s future. Only by addressing the concerns of all Somalis, respecting regional autonomy, and fostering a spirit of cooperation and power-sharing can Somalia hope to achieve lasting stability, unity, and prosperity.
The potential fallout from the implementation of a controversial Constitution in Somalia and the pursuit of elections without adequate preparation and inclusivity should serve as a warning to President Hassan Sheikh and his government. It is time to step back, reassess, and engage in a genuine process of national reconciliation and consensus-building. The future of Somalia depends on the choices made today, and it is the responsibility of its leaders to steer the country towards a path of peace, stability, and inclusive development.
