Mogadishu, SOMALIA – President Hassan Sheikh’s visit today to the besieged districts of Harardhere and El Dher in eastern Galmudug, near the Indian Ocean, has brought to light the stark contrast between the government’s portrayal of the situation and the reality on the ground. These districts, surrounded by Al-Shabab and supplied mostly by air, serve as a poignant reminder of the challenges faced by the Somali government in its efforts to liberate the country from the terrorist group’s grip.
The Illusion of Control
The president’s visit, intended to showcase the government’s control over these areas, instead revealed ghost towns where he could only address troops or a handful of people. This stark imagery undermines the government’s narrative of progress and highlights the true extent of Al-Shabab’s influence in the region. The lack of civilian presence and normal economic activity in these districts is a testament to the ongoing struggle for control and the difficulties faced by the government in maintaining a strong presence in liberated areas.
The government’s stated goal of defeating Al-Shabab in these regions last year has not been realized, and the president’s visit has done little to instill confidence in the progress of liberation operations. With the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) set to withdraw from most of HirShabelle by the end of June, the future of these besieged districts is uncertain. The situation in El Dher, which has changed hands between Al-Shabab and the government multiple times, exemplifies the fragility of the government’s control and the ongoing struggle to maintain a foothold in these areas.
Constitutional Crisis and Its Impact on the Fight Against Al-Shabab
The constitutional crisis, triggered by President Hassan Sheikh’s controversial amendments and the creation of a new constitution without proper consensus, has further complicated the government’s efforts to combat Al-Shabab. The lack of unity and consensus among Somali political actors has created a divided front, weakening the government’s ability to effectively allocate resources and maintain focus on the fight against the terrorist group. This internal discord has created opportunities for Al-Shabab to exploit, as evidenced by the group’s ability to recapture El Dher in August 2023, only to be driven out again by the government in December of the same year.
Puntland’s decision to withdraw its recognition of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and invoke its independence clause in response to the president’s unconstitutional actions highlights the dangers of changing constitutions without consensus. This move by Puntland underscores the potential for further fragmentation within the country and the erosion of the government’s legitimacy. The winner-takes-all politics that have long plagued Somalia are once again at play, with the president’s actions seeming to prioritize personal and political gain over the unity and stability of the nation. This approach to governance has historically fueled tribalism and division, hindering progress and creating a fertile ground for groups like Al-Shabab to thrive.
The Need for Unity and Consensus
To effectively combat Al-Shabab and maintain control over liberated areas, Somalia must prioritize a return to the constitutional process, involving all federal member states, including Puntland. Only through inclusive dialogue, consensus-building, and a commitment to the rule of law can the country hope to overcome the threats posed by Al-Shabab and achieve lasting peace and stability. The government must also focus on rebuilding the trust of the civilian population in these besieged districts, as their support and cooperation are crucial in the fight against the terrorist group.
The international community has a vital role to play in supporting Somalia during this critical time. By engaging with all stakeholders, including Puntland, and promoting inclusive governance and respect for the constitutional process, international partners can help Somalia navigate this difficult period and emerge stronger and more united. They must also continue to provide targeted support to the government’s efforts to combat Al-Shabab, while ensuring that such support is contingent upon the government’s commitment to the rule of law and the constitutional process.
President Hassan Sheikh’s visit to the besieged districts of Harardhere and El Dher has exposed the stark reality of the challenges faced by Somalia in its fight against Al-Shabab and the impact of the ongoing constitutional crisis. The ghost towns and the limited civilian presence during the president’s visit serve as a sobering reminder of the long road ahead in the quest for peace and stability. Only by addressing the root causes of division, prioritizing consensus-building, and maintaining a strong commitment to the rule of law can Somalia hope to overcome the threats posed by Al-Shabab and build a foundation for a brighter future.
