Mogadishu, SOMALIA – The Hiraal Institute, a prominent Somali think tank, has released a comprehensive report analyzing the security dynamics in Somalia during President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s tenure from May 2022 to May 2024. The report paints a grim picture of the escalating threat posed by Al-Shabab, the ineffectiveness of allied operations, and the political and leadership failures that have undermined the country’s stability and security.
Surge in Al-Shabab Attacks
One of the most striking findings of the Hiraal Institute’s report is the dramatic increase in Al-Shabab attacks during President Mohamud’s tenure. The data reveals that the militant group has not only intensified its offensive operations but has also strategically shifted towards more aggressive and high-impact tactics, such as direct raids and the extensive use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
According to the report, the number of raids conducted by Al-Shabab surged by an alarming 75%, from an average of 280 per year in 2020-2021 to 490 per year in 2022-2023. Similarly, the use of IEDs witnessed a staggering 50% increase, with incidents rising from an average of 166.5 per year in 2020-2021 to 249.5 per year in 2022-2023.
These figures underscore Al-Shabab’s growing confidence and operational capacity, posing substantial challenges to the Somali government’s efforts to restore stability. The Hiraal Institute’s findings suggest that despite the government’s nearly two-year offensive against the group, Al-Shabab has not only managed to maintain its presence in many parts of the country but has also adapted its tactics to inflict maximum damage on government forces and civilian targets.
Ineffectiveness of Allied Operations
The Hiraal Institute’s report also raises serious questions about the effectiveness of allied operations in degrading Al-Shabab’s capabilities and reducing its territorial control. While the data shows a slight increase in the frequency of airstrikes and special forces raids during President Mohamud’s tenure, the impact of these efforts on the group’s overall strength and influence remains limited.
The report highlights Al-Shabab’s remarkable ability to adapt to counter-insurgency measures and maintain its operational cohesion, despite the increased pressure from allied forces. This resilience suggests that the current approach to security, which relies heavily on military means, is insufficient in addressing the complex challenges posed by the militant group.
Moreover, the Hiraal Institute’s analysis reveals that the government’s policy of arming clan militias, known as Macawisley, to counter Al-Shabab has had the unintended consequence of exacerbating clan rivalries and fueling further conflict. The report shows a staggering 163% increase in clan infighting incidents, from 41 in 2020 to 108 in 2023, underscoring the risks associated with this strategy and its impact on the country’s security landscape.
Political and Leadership Failures
The Hiraal Institute’s report also sheds light on the political and leadership failures that have undermined Somalia’s stability and hindered efforts to combat Al-Shabab effectively. The report criticizes President Mohamud’s mishandling of the constitutional amendment process, which has deepened political divisions and strained relations with key regional stakeholders, particularly Puntland.
The report argues that the President’s failure to engage in genuine dialogue and build consensus around the constitutional reform process has diverted attention and resources away from pressing security and economic challenges facing the country. Furthermore, the deterioration of Somalia’s relationships with key regional allies, such as Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has had far-reaching consequences for regional security cooperation and the country’s ability to effectively combat Al-Shabab.
The Hiraal Institute’s analysis also highlights the widespread corruption and mismanagement within the security forces, which have undermined the effectiveness of counter-insurgency efforts and eroded public trust in the government’s ability to provide security. The report cites the high number of “ghost soldiers” and the diversion of resources as evidence of the systemic problems plaguing the security apparatus.
The Hiraal Institute’s report serves as a stark warning about the escalating threat posed by Al-Shabab and the ineffectiveness of the current approach to security in Somalia. The findings underscore the urgent need for a comprehensive and adaptive strategy that goes beyond military means and addresses the underlying political, social, and economic factors fueling the conflict.
The report calls for greater transparency, accountability, and inclusivity in the government’s decision-making processes, as well as a genuine commitment to dialogue and reconciliation with marginalized communities and political opponents. It also emphasizes the importance of strengthening regional cooperation and partnerships to address the shared security challenges facing the Horn of Africa.
As Somalia continues to grapple with the complex challenges posed by Al-Shabab and the limitations of its current security approach, the Hiraal Institute’s report serves as a critical resource for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders seeking to understand the dynamics of the conflict and develop more effective strategies for promoting lasting peace and stability in the country.
