Garowe, PUNTLAND – In a significant development that has largely gone unnoticed amidst the ongoing conflict in southern Somalia, the Islamic State in Somalia (IS-S) has claimed to have expanded its presence and taken control of the Al Miskaad mountain range from its rival, Al-Shabab. This mountainous region, located in the Bari region of Puntland, has been a long-standing target for Al-Shabab, which has been attempting to remove IS-Somalia from the area for the past eight years. Puntland security sources have confirmed to The Somali Digest that much of IS-S’s claims are indeed true, highlighting the evolving dynamics in the region.
The Strategic Significance of Al Miskaad Mountains
To fully understand the implications of IS-S’s takeover of Al Miskaad in the Bari region, it is crucial to consider the geographical and strategic context of the region. Al Miskaad’s strategic importance arises from the cover and water it provides, and because Mumin’s clan resides in its vicinity, offering protection to the group. While the Al Madow mountains are larger and provide better cover, but since Mumin’s clan does not reside there, it was impossible for the group to grow in that area. The Bosaso-Kalabeyr road geographically divides the two mountain ranges and serves as a natural boundary and a vital transportation artery for the region. By securing its presence in Al Miskaad, IS-S has effectively expanded its operational space and gained a strategic advantage and distance from its much stronger rival, Al-Shabab.
The Al Miskaad mountain range is a remote and sparsely inhabited area that does not encompass many permanent settlements. The Puntland government maintains control over the nearby population centers and access roads, while both Al-Shabab and IS-S have managed to infiltrate the mountainous terrain by foot or other means, without establishing direct control over the infrastructure or the local population.
The Origins of IS-Somalia and Importance of Al Miskaad to the Group
The Islamic State in Somalia traces its origins back to October 2015, when Abdulqadir Mumin, along with 17 of his lieutenants, declared their allegiance to the global Islamic State and broke away from Al-Shabab. This small group of militants then fled from Galgala, in the Al Madow range of mountains in the Sanaag region, to establish a presence in the Al Miskaad mountains of Bari.
Despite Al-Shabab outnumbering them, IS-S managed to evade capture and set up a base of operations in Al Miskaad. Al-Shabab took this development extremely seriously and launched a major amphibious assault on the Bari region in March 2016 in an attempt to eliminate the nascent IS-S threat. However, navigational errors and engine troubles led the Al-Shabab fighters to end up in the Nugaal and Mudug regions, where Puntland forces swiftly engaged and defeated them, causing hundreds of casualties and captures.
IS-S’s most significant territorial gain came in late October 2016, when it briefly took control of the Qandala district, garnering international attention and prompting a decisive response from the Puntland authorities. Qandala was subsequently liberated in December 2016, with IS-S suffering significant losses in terms of both fighters killed and captured. Since then, the group has not managed to establish control over any population center in Puntland, instead focusing on financial operations and acting as a conduit for the global Islamic State’s funding, collecting taxes across Somalia and channeling the funds to other Islamic State affiliates worldwide.
The Struggle for Dominance in Al Miskaad
The conflict between Al-Shabab and IS-S in the Al Miskaad mountains has intensified in recent years, with Al-Shabab gradually encroaching on IS-S’s territory since 2019. By mid-2022, it appeared that IS-S was on the verge of collapse, as Al-Shabab continued to push the group further south, away from areas with better access to water and vegetation, and into more exposed territories north of Ballididin district.
However, a surprising turn of events occurred when the Somali government, under the leadership of President Hassan Sheikh, launched the Liberation Operations against Al-Shabab in southern Somalia. This shift in focus inadvertently provided a lifeline for IS-S, as Al-Shabab had to divert its resources and attention away from the Al Miskaad mountains to counter the government offensive.
Although independently verifying IS-S’s claims of having fully driven Al-Shabab out of the Al Miskaad mountains and the broader Bari region is difficult, the group has evidently managed to regain the upper hand in the area. Puntland security sources estimate that IS-S’s ranks have swelled to between 200 and 300 fighters, mostly consisting of Ethiopian nationals.
Implications for Somalia’s Security
The rise of IS-S in the Al Miskaad mountains and its apparent success in challenging Al-Shabab’s dominance in the region have significant implications for Somalia’s overall security. As the Somali government continues its offensive against Al-Shabab in the south, IS-S may consolidate its gains in Puntland and pose long-term threats to the regions. This, in turn, could further complicate the efforts of the Somali government and its international partners to stabilize the country.
The takeover of IS-S in the Al Miskaad mountains therefore poses a significant challenge for the Puntland administration, which must now prioritize the containment and elimination of this threat. Failure to do so could result in a scenario similar to that of 2016, when IS-S briefly took control of the Qandala district, forcing the Puntland authorities to mount a costly military operation to liberate the area.
To effectively counter the group, the Puntland government must adopt a multi-faceted approach that combines targeted military operations, intelligence gathering, and community engagement.
Furthermore, the Puntland administration must enhance its coordination with the federal government and other regional states to develop a comprehensive strategy for combating extremism and preventing the spread of the group’s influence beyond the Al Miskaad mountains.
The takeover of the Al Miskaad mountains by the Islamic State in Somalia represents a significant shift in the dynamics in the region. Although the remote and sparsely populated nature of the area may limit the immediate impact of this development, one cannot overlook the strategic implications.
As IS-S continues to expand its presence and challenge Al-Shabab’s dominance in the north, the Puntland administration must prioritize the containment and elimination of this threat. Failure to do so could result in a further deterioration of the security situation, not only in Puntland but across Somalia as a whole.
