Mogadishu, SOMALIA – Today, the Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre declared that “elections at the tent” will not happen again. Ironically, Hamza Barre made this pronouncement while speaking at the launching event of the National Reconciliation Framework, which organizers held in the tent where Members of Parliament (MPs) elected President Hassan Sheikh as required by law. This statement, referring to the long-standing practice of holding presidential elections in a tent with MPs voting for candidates, has faced skepticism and criticism, as many view it as an unrealistic promise given the current political and security situation in Somalia.
The Impossibility of the Timeline
Prime Minister Hamza Barre’s promise to move away from the traditional “elections at the tent” system and towards direct elections is a noble goal, but one that seems far-fetched given the current realities on the ground in Somalia. With Al-Shabab controlling vast swathes of the population in south and central Somalia, the idea of holding direct elections in these areas is simply not feasible.
The terrorist group’s stranglehold on these regions has made it virtually impossible for the Somali government to extend its authority and conduct the necessary preparations for direct elections, such as voter registration and the establishment of secure polling stations. Without these fundamental elements in place, any attempt to hold direct elections would be an exercise in futility and could potentially put the lives of civilians at risk.
Moreover, the logistical and security challenges posed by Al-Shabab’s presence are not the only obstacles to direct elections in Somalia. The country’s fragile political system, characterized by deep-seated clan rivalries and a lack of trust in government institutions, further complicates the prospect of holding free and fair elections on a national scale at this time, without stakeholder support and consensus.
The Government’s Lack of Seriousness
Despite the obvious challenges to holding direct elections in Somalia, Prime Minister Hamza Barre’s government has continued to make grandiose promises that seem disconnected from reality. In May 2023, during a National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in Mogadishu, the federal government and its loyal southern Federal Member States (FMS) pledged to hold direct elections across the country. According to the communique, they set local council elections to take place on June 30, 2024, followed by regional parliamentary and regional leadership elections on November 30, 2024.
However, with no visible progress made towards voter registration or the establishment of the necessary infrastructure for direct elections, this promise rings hollow. The government’s failure to take concrete steps towards fulfilling its commitments suggests a lack of seriousness and a willingness to engage in political theater rather than meaningful reform.
This apparent lack of sincerity on the part of Hamza Barre’s administration has led many to question the government’s true intentions. Some have speculated that the focus on unrealistic election promises may be a deliberate ploy to delay the holding of elections scheduled for May 2026, when the current government’s term is set to expire.
The possibility that Prime Minister Hamza Barre’s government may be using the promise of direct elections as a means to delay the 2026 elections is a deeply troubling prospect. Such a move would not only undermine the democratic process but could also lead to widespread political instability and even violent conflict. In 2021, the country witnessed a period of intense political turmoil and violence in Mogadishu when the government failed to hold elections on time and sought to extend its rule. The resulting clashes between rival factions and the breakdown of the political process served as a painful reminder of the fragility of Somalia’s democratic institutions.
The Need for Realistic Dialogue
To avoid the disastrous consequences of delayed elections and political instability, it is imperative that Prime Minister Hamza Barre and his government engage in realistic and inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders in Somalia’s political process. This includes not only the federal government and its loyal FMS but also opposition parties, civil society groups, and regional administrations that may have differing views on the way forward.
The focus of this dialogue should be on finding a practical and achievable roadmap for holding elections in 2026 that takes into account the current security and logistical challenges facing the country. This may require a gradual approach, with incremental steps taken towards the ultimate goal of direct elections, rather than an all-or-nothing stance that sets the country up for failure.
Moreover, any discussion on the future of Somalia’s electoral system must be grounded in the principles of transparency, accountability, and respect for the rule of law. The government must demonstrate its commitment to these values by taking concrete actions to address issues such as corruption, human rights abuses, and the lack of independence in key institutions such as the judiciary and the electoral commission.
