Mogadishu, SOMALIA – The United Nations Security Council’s expected resolution today on the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) marks a critical juncture in Somalia’s struggle for stability. However, the post-ATMIS challenges in Somalia are poised to be far more complex and daunting than those faced by its predecessor. This transition occurs against a backdrop of Al-Shabab’s resurgence, increasing clan conflicts, a weakened Somali National Army (SNA), and deteriorating relations between Somalia and Ethiopia. The confluence of these factors creates a perfect storm that threatens to undermine years of fragile progress.
One of the most pressing post-ATMIS challenges in Somalia is the looming financial crisis facing the new mission. Unlike ATMIS, which enjoyed relatively stable funding from traditional donors, the successor mission faces significant financial uncertainties. The UNSC resolution’s call for an “enlargement and diversification of the donor base” underscores the precarious funding situation.
The absence of firm commitments from key players like the United States and the European Union exacerbates this financial instability. Without adequate funding, the new mission will struggle to maintain the operational capacity necessary to support Somalia’s security forces and counter the growing threat posed by Al-Shabab. This financial uncertainty could lead to inadequate equipment and limited operational capabilities, all of which would significantly hamper the mission’s effectiveness.
Operational Constraints
The post-ATMIS challenges in Somalia extend beyond financial concerns to include significant manpower issues. The phased drawdown of ATMIS troops assumes a gradual transfer of security responsibilities to Somali forces. However, this transition occurs at a time when the SNA is severely weakened and ill-equipped to fill the void.
The SNA has suffered substantial degradation, with UAE-trained forces reduced to less than half their original strength of 12,000 soldiers. The Turkish-trained Gorgor forces have also been decimated, with many commanders killed, imprisoned, or having deserted. This attrition of Somalia’s elite fighting units creates a significant gap in the country’s counter-terrorism capabilities.
The manpower challenges are further compounded by the recent scandal involving the theft of food rations meant for the elite Danab unit, which led to the suspension of U.S. food aid. This incident not only undermines the operational readiness of a key fighting force but also erodes trust between Somalia and its international partners, potentially impacting future support and cooperation.
The Ethiopian Factor
Perhaps the most volatile aspect of the post-ATMIS challenges in Somalia is the deteriorating relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia. The Somali government’s insistence that Ethiopian troops leave after the ATMIS mission concludes reflects deep-seated historical tensions and complex regional dynamics. However, this stance conflicts with the practical realities on the ground and the strategic considerations of regional security.
Diplomatic sources suggest that Somalia may face significant pressure to accept the continued presence of Ethiopian troops. The willingness of Ethiopia to continue operations in Somalia with or without the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) acceptance underscores the limits of Somali sovereignty and the complex web of regional interests at play.
This political impasse not only complicates the security landscape but also threatens to undermine the cohesion of the international effort to stabilize Somalia. The potential for unilateral Ethiopian military action in Somalia could exacerbate tensions, fuel local resentments, and potentially provide propaganda opportunities for Al-Shabab.
Al-Shabab’s Resurgence Amidst Security Vacuum
As foreign troops withdraw and the SNA struggles to assert control, Al-Shabab has seized the opportunity to reclaim lost territory and reassert its influence. Recent months have seen the group recapture several major districts and strategic locations, including El Buur, Caad, and Ruun Nirgood. These gains effectively reverse many of the hard-won victories achieved by ATMIS and Somali forces in recent years.
The resurgence of Al-Shabab poses one of the most significant post-ATMIS challenges in Somalia. The group’s ability to exploit governance gaps, leverage clan grievances, and adapt its tactics makes it a formidable foe for the weakened SNA and the incoming peace support mission. The terrorist organization’s continued ability to collect taxes in Mogadishu, despite government claims of progress in dismantling their financial networks, underscores their resilience and deep-rooted influence.
Compounding the threat posed by Al-Shabab is the alarming increase in clan-based conflicts across Somalia. The recent clashes near Goldogob between Sacad and Lelkase clan militias, as well as similar incidents in other regions, highlight the volatile nature of inter-clan relations. These conflicts not only divert attention and resources from the fight against Al-Shabab but also create opportunities for the terrorist group to exploit local grievances and expand its influence.
The involvement of clan militias armed as part of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s strategy to combat Al-Shabab adds another layer of complexity to the security landscape. Instead of focusing on the common enemy, these militias have often turned their weapons on rival clans, exacerbating historical grievances and competition for resources.
This escalation in clan conflicts presents a significant challenge for the post-ATMIS mission. The new peace support operation will need to navigate the complex web of clan politics while simultaneously working to counter Al-Shabab and support the development of professional, clan-neutral security forces
