GARBAHAREY, June 14, 2023 – A startling display of regional political tensions unfolded in the Somali skies yesterday when a plane carrying the newly appointed Gedo administration was forced to return to its point of origin by local forces. This dramatic episode has raised the stakes in the ongoing standoff between of Gedo and the Jubbaland administration based in Kismayo.
This airborne confrontation comes on the heels of a recent shake-up in the Gedo administration. On June 7, Ahmed Madobe, the long-reigning ruler of Jubbaland, appointed a new leadership for the neighboring state of Gedo. This was a move seen as a strategic response to the changing political dynamics in the region and Madobe’s waning influence in certain territories.
The heart of this brewing storm lies in the upcoming Jubbaland elections. Initially slated for August 2023, the elections’ schedule saw a significant change. Following a meeting by the National Consultative Council on May 28, 2023, the vote was deferred to November 2024 in all Federal Member States (FMS), including Jubbaland. This move was boycotted and rejected by Puntland and all opposition leaders.
Political players in Gedo have sensed an opportunity in this electoral delay. An ambition is taking root in the Gedo political scene, aiming to claim the Jubbaland presidency. The stakes are high, particularly because the Ogaden clan currently holds the Prime Minister’s position in the federal government. An addition of Jubbaland’s presidential seat would significantly amplify their political heft.
Ahmed Madobe, an influential figure who has helmed Jubbaland for more than 11 years, finds his grip on power slowly diminishing. His control is now limited to pockets of Lower Jubba and El Wak in Gedo. The rest of Gedo and Middle Jubba elude his authority, a fact that contributes to the strained relationship with the Gedo administration.
Adding fuel to the fire is a perceived imbalance in the Jubbaland administration’s focus. Local authorities in Gedo express outrage over Jubbaland’s efforts to consolidate power in Gedo. According to them, Jubbaland has shown more interest in conquering Gedo rather than recuperating territories from Al-Shabaab-held Middle Jubba and most of Lower Jubba.
In the unfolding drama of regional politics, the forced u-turn of Gedo administration’s plane stands as a potent symbol of the escalating tensions. As the deadline of the rescheduled November elections inches closer, this incident serves as a stark reminder of the potential volatility that could disrupt Somalia’s political landscape, particularly in the troubled region of Jubbaland.
