Mogadishu, SOMALIA – President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud today visited three Somali National Army (SNA) bases—TurkSom, General Dhegabadan, and General Daud—to rally the troops and prepare them for the looming confrontation with Al-Shabab. The militant group is currently on the counteroffensive, threatening to undo the hard-fought gains made by the SNA.
During his visits to the military camps, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud delivered a message to the troops, urging them to continue their efforts in liberating areas held by Al-Shabab. He commended the soldiers for their bravery and dedication in reclaiming territories from the militant group, acknowledging the sacrifices they have made in the name of peace and stability in Somalia.
Promises vs. Reality: A Disconcerting Disparity
An examination of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s past statements regarding the defeat of Al-Shabab reveals a disconnect between his assurances and the actual situation in Somalia. For nearly two years, the President has been promising a decisive victory over the militant group, yet the evidence suggests that these claims have been overly optimistic at best and misleading at worst.
In December 2022, during an interview with Al-Jazeera, President Hassan Sheikh declared that Al-Shabab would be defeated within “weeks” in the regions of GalMudug and HirShabelle. However, this claim has failed to materialize, and the group continues to maintain a significant presence in these areas. The government’s own actions have contradicted the President’s assurances; in August, the SNA withdrew from most of the liberated areas in Galgaduud, only to partly return in December 2023.
Furthermore, Al-Shabab’s recent resurgence, as evidenced by the recapture of several towns, including Caad, Camaara, Bacaadweyne, and Darul Nim’a, casts serious doubts on the effectiveness of the current counterterrorism strategy. The President’s failure to acknowledge these setbacks and provide a transparent assessment of the challenges faced by the SNA risks eroding public trust and undermining the credibility of the government’s efforts.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s focus in recent months has been on creating what is essentially a new Constitution for Somalia, an achievement that came to fruition for him in March. While constitutional reform is undoubtedly crucial for the country’s long-term stability and governance, it lacked political consensus. Without the necessary political support, and with politicians bickering over the new constitution, attention and commitment to the war on Al-Shabab have faltered. The President now aims to demonstrate his commitment to this conflict through a new counteroffensive.
Of Ghost Soldiers and Resource Misappropriation
The persistent problem of ghost soldiers and the misallocation of resources within the SNA poses a grave threat to the effectiveness of counterterrorism efforts in Somalia. This issue, which has led to the withdrawal of support from key allies such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), undermines the very foundation of the fight against Al-Shabab.
Addressing this systemic issue is crucial for the long-term success of the fight against Al-Shabab. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his government must take decisive action to root out corruption within the military, ensure the proper allocation of resources, and restore the confidence of international partners. So far, this has not been done, and temporary measures have been taken such as attempting to demonstrate manufactured commitment to the war against Al-Shabab.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s rallying of troops amidst the Al-Shabab counteroffensive, while a display of leadership, must be viewed through a critical lens. The disparity between the President’s promises and the reality on the ground, coupled with the challenges of balancing constitutional reform and counterterrorism, and the persistent problem of ghost soldiers and resource stealing, underscores the complexity of the fight against Al-Shabab.
