Mogadishu, SOMALIA – As President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud gears up to mark his second anniversary in power with celebrations and a National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in Mogadishu, it is imperative to objectively assess his leadership and the current state of Somalia. Despite the President’s claims of achievements and the support of some Federal Member States (FMS), a thorough examination reveals a tenure plagued by broken promises, political turmoil, and a glaring lack of progress in tackling the nation’s most critical issues.
Constitutional Crisis and Political Turmoil
President Hassan Sheikh’s handling of the constitutional reform process stands out as one of the most significant failures of his leadership. Instead of promoting inclusive dialogue and consensus-building among all stakeholders, the President has forced through controversial constitutional changes without proper consultation or agreement from opposition groups and regional states, particularly Puntland.
This heavy-handed approach has exacerbated political divisions within the country and has triggered a crisis of legitimacy for the federal government. The forced constitutional changes have been vehemently opposed and have eroded the trust and cooperation essential for achieving lasting political stability and effective governance.
Furthermore, the President’s actions have jeopardized the delicate power balance between the federal government and the FMS, with Puntland emerging as a fierce critic of the government’s approach. This has severely hindered efforts to achieve national unity and has raised serious doubts about the government’s commitment to a genuine federal system that respects the rights and autonomy of regional states.
The political instability stemming from the constitutional crisis has also adversely affected Somalia’s security situation. The absence of a unified and coherent approach to governance has undermined efforts to combat Al-Shabab and other security threats, as evidenced by the group’s persistent ability to carry out attacks and maintain control over significant portions of the country.
Persistent Insecurity and the Threat of Al-Shabab
Despite President Hassan Sheikh’s promises to prioritize security and defeat Al-Shabab, the situation on the ground remains dire. The militant group continues to pose a grave threat to Somalia’s stability, carrying out frequent attacks on civilian and military targets and maintaining a strong presence in many parts of the country.
The request by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to terminate the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) has further heightened concerns about the country’s security situation. While the government has portrayed this move as a step towards greater self-reliance and ownership of its security responsibilities, it is a misguided and premature decision that fails to consider the country’s limited capacity and the ongoing challenges it faces.
Somalia’s security forces, particularly the Somali National Army (SNA), continue to grapple with significant deficiencies in capacity, professionalism, and effectiveness. The recent revelation of corruption within the SNA, including the theft and sale of food rations meant for soldiers, has exposed the deep-rooted issues of mismanagement and lack of accountability within the country’s security apparatus.
Moreover, the FGS’s inconsistent and contradictory approach towards the UNSOM transition demonstrates a lack of coherence and preparedness in the government’s security strategy. The initial push for a rapid termination of UNSOM’s mandate, followed by a sudden shift towards a more gradual, phased transition, underscores the government’s inability to effectively manage the complex security challenges facing the country.
Diplomatic Blunders
President Hassan Sheikh’s leadership has been characterized by strained relationships with key international partners and regional allies. The government’s handling of the UNSOM transition, as well as its approach to regional disputes and security challenges, lacks diplomacy and strategic vision.
The FGS’s inconsistent and contradictory communications regarding the UNSOM transition have left many international partners baffled and exasperated. The lack of clarity and consultation in the government’s decision-making process has eroded confidence in its ability to manage the complex challenges of the post-UNSOM era and has damaged its relationships with key donors and allies.
Moreover, the government’s mishandling of regional tensions and disputes, such as the ongoing conflict with Somaliland and Puntland, and the tensions with Ethiopia, demonstrates a profound lack of diplomatic acumen and strategic foresight. The failure to foster constructive dialogue and find peaceful solutions to these challenges has further strained Somalia’s regional relationships and has impeded efforts to promote stability and cooperation in the Horn of Africa.
