Mogadishu, SOMALIA – The Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) handling of the proposed transition from the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) to a regular UN Country Team has been marred by inconsistency, unpreparedness, and unrealistic expectations. The contradictory messages and actions of the government have raised serious doubts about its ability to manage the transition effectively.
Inconsistency and Mixed Messages
The FGS’s approach to the UNSOM transition has been characterized by a series of mixed messages and contradictory actions that have left observers and stakeholders confused and concerned. The government’s initial request to terminate UNSOM’s mandate by October 2024 suggested a rushed and poorly thought-out decision that prioritized speed over careful planning and consideration of the country’s readiness.
However, the recent letter from Somalia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, H.E. Ahmed Maalim Fiqi, to the President of the Security Council, H.E. Mr. Pedro Comissário Afonso, seems to backtrack on this aggressive timeline, proposing instead a more gradual, phased transition. This apparent shift in approach, while potentially a positive development, raises questions about the government’s consistency and strategic vision.
The lack of clarity in the FGS’s communications has left stakeholders, including regional states, civil society, and international partners, struggling to understand the government’s true intentions and plans for the transition. This inconsistency has undermined trust in the government’s leadership and raised doubts about its ability to manage the complex challenges facing the country.
The FGS’s approach to the UNSOM transition has also been marked by a concerning lack of preparedness and detailed planning. Minister Fiqi’s letter, while acknowledging the importance of a phased transition and the need to incorporate best practices from past UN operations, provides little in the way of concrete details or specific plans. This lack of specificity suggests that the FGS may not have fully grappled with the challenges and requirements of the transition process and may be underestimating the level of preparation and coordination required.
Overestimation of Capabilities
The FGS’s approach to the UNSOM transition also appears to be driven by unrealistic expectations and an overestimation of its own capabilities. The government’s initial push for a rapid termination of UNSOM’s mandate, despite the ongoing security threats and political instability in the country, suggests a lack of understanding of the magnitude of the challenges it faces and the level of support it still requires.
While the desire for greater autonomy and ownership of the country’s future is understandable, the FGS’s actions and communications have not demonstrated a realistic assessment of Somalia’s current capacities and needs. The government’s failure to articulate a clear and detailed plan for the transition process, coupled with its inconsistent messaging and lack of inclusivity, raises concerns about its ability to manage the complex tasks of security provision, institutional development, and economic recovery without significant international support.
Moreover, the FGS’s emphasis on collaboration with international partners to address global challenges, while laudable, seems disconnected from the reality of its own limited capabilities and the ongoing need for technical assistance and capacity building. This apparent mismatch between the government’s aspirations and its actual readiness risks setting unrealistic expectations and could lead to disappointment and frustration down the line.
The Need for Consistency and Inclusivity
To effectively manage the UNSOM transition and lay the groundwork for a successful post-UNSOM era, the FGS must adopt a more realistic, consistent, and inclusive approach. This requires a sober assessment of the country’s current challenges and capabilities, as well as a willingness to engage in genuine dialogue and collaboration with all stakeholders.
The government must develop a clear and comprehensive transition plan that reflects the realities on the ground and the concerns of all relevant actors. This plan should be based on a thorough assessment of Somalia’s security, political, and institutional needs, and should include a realistic timeline for the phased transfer of responsibilities.
Moreover, the FGS must demonstrate consistency and transparency in its communications and actions, avoiding mixed messages and contradictory decisions that undermine trust and confidence in its leadership. It must also prioritize inclusivity and engagement with regional states, civil society, and international partners, recognizing that the success of the transition depends on the buy-in and support of all stakeholders.
