Mogadishu, SOMALIA – Somalia’s formal request to terminate the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) has raised eyebrows and concerns within the international community. While the move may be seen as an assertion of sovereignty and a desire for self-reliance, it comes at a time when the country is grappling with significant political instability, incomplete institutional building, and ongoing security threats. The decision to end UNSOM’s mandate prematurely could have severe consequences for Somalia’s fragile progress and its ability to maintain peace and stability in the face of complex challenges.
Somalia’s Lack of Readiness
One of the primary concerns surrounding Somalia’s request to terminate UNSOM is the country’s lack of readiness to take over its own security responsibilities. Somalia has long relied on international support, particularly through UNSOM, to combat the threat posed by Al-Shabaab, an extremist group that has carried out numerous deadly attacks and sought to undermine the government’s authority.
The Somali National Army (SNA), despite receiving training and support from international partners, still faces significant challenges in terms of capacity, effectiveness, and cohesion. Recent incidents, such as the theft and sale of food rations meant for the elite Danab forces, have highlighted the ongoing issues of corruption and mismanagement within the country’s security apparatus.
Moreover, the complex clan dynamics and the risk of political instability further complicate Somalia’s security landscape. Without the stabilizing presence of UNSOM, there are concerns that the hard-fought gains in security and stability could be quickly eroded, leaving the country vulnerable to resurgent threats from Al-Shabaab and other extremist groups.
Forced Constitutional Changes and Political Instability
Somalia’s decision to terminate UNSOM’s mandate also comes amidst a backdrop of political instability and controversial constitutional changes. The government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has been accused of forcing through constitutional amendments without adequate consultation or consensus-building with opposition groups and regional stakeholders, particularly Puntland.
These forced changes have been met with strong resistance and have deepened the political divisions within the country. Puntland, a semi-autonomous region in northeastern Somalia, has been a vocal critic of the government’s approach and has rejected the constitutional changes, arguing that they undermine the country’s federal structure and the rights of regional states.
The lack of political consensus and the growing tensions between the government and opposition groups raise serious questions about Somalia’s ability to maintain stability and unity in the absence of UNSOM’s mediation and support. The mission has played a crucial role in facilitating political dialogue and reconciliation efforts, and its premature termination could exacerbate the existing fault lines and lead to further instability.
Incomplete Institutional Building
The premature termination of UNSOM could disrupt the progress made in institutional building and leave these critical bodies without the necessary support and guidance to become fully functional and effective. This, in turn, could undermine Somalia’s ability to maintain the rule of law, protect human rights, and ensure free and fair elections in the future.
Furthermore, the absence of strong and independent institutions could create a vacuum that could be exploited by corrupt actors and extremist groups, further undermining the country’s stability and development. The international community, through UNSOM, has been providing crucial technical assistance and capacity-building support to help Somalia establish and strengthen these institutions, and the sudden withdrawal of this support could have severe consequences.
Given the significant challenges and risks associated with the premature termination of UNSOM, it is crucial that any transition towards greater Somali ownership and self-reliance be gradual, phased, and carefully managed. The international community, including the United Nations, should work closely with the Somali government to develop a clear roadmap for the transfer of responsibilities, ensuring that the necessary capacities and institutions are in place to maintain security and stability.
This process should involve a comprehensive assessment of Somalia’s security, political, and institutional readiness, as well as a realistic timeline for the phased drawdown of UNSOM’s presence and support. The transition should also be accompanied by continued international engagement and support, particularly in the areas of capacity building, technical assistance, and development aid, to help Somalia address the underlying drivers of instability and build a more resilient and self-sufficient future.
