Hargeisa, SOMALIA – As Somaliland celebrates 18 May, marking the 33rd anniversary of its unilateral declaration of independence from Somalia, the breakaway region finds itself grappling with a series of territorial losses and diplomatic setbacks that have cast a shadow over its secessionist aspirations. Despite the defiant rhetoric of Somaliland’s President, Muse Bihi, who claimed today that his region will never rejoin Somalia, the reality on the ground paints a different picture of a region struggling to maintain its grip on power and legitimacy.
Territorial Losses and Military Setbacks
Somaliland’s claim to sovereignty has been dealt a severe blow by the loss of significant territories in recent months. The eastern regions that the breakaway region once claimed as its own are now firmly under the control of the SSC-K administration and Puntland, with their forces holding territory up to villages near El Afweyn in central Sanaag region.
The most significant setback for Somaliland came in the battle of 25 August 2023, when its military suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of SSC-K forces in Sool region. The loss of Las Anod and most of Sool region was a humiliating blow for Somaliland, which saw nearly 500 of its soldiers captured and hundreds of its battlewagons, including tanks and APCs, seized by the victorious SSC-K forces.
Since then, Somaliland has attempted to regain some of its lost territories through skirmishes in Togdheer region, but these efforts have been largely unsuccessful. The breakaway region’s military has been repeatedly defeated in these clashes, further eroding its already diminished credibility and power.
The Ethiopia MoU: A Desperate Gambit
Faced with these territorial losses and military setbacks, Somaliland has sought to bolster its position through diplomatic means. In a bid to gain international recognition and support, the breakaway region signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ethiopia on 1 January 2024.
Under the terms of the MoU, Somaliland agreed to grant Ethiopia access to its sea ports in exchange for recognition and support for its secessionist aspirations. The deal was widely seen as a desperate gambit by Somaliland to stay relevant and gain some measure of legitimacy in the face of its declining fortunes.
However, the Ethiopia MoU has faced significant setbacks and rejection from regional and international bodies. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union (AU), the Arab League, and the United Nations have all expressed their opposition to the deal, citing concerns about its impact on regional stability and the territorial integrity of Somalia.
The rejection of the Ethiopia MoU has been a major blow to Somaliland’s diplomatic efforts, leaving the breakaway region increasingly isolated and marginalized on the international stage. It has also exposed the limits of Somaliland’s ability to secure recognition and support for its secessionist agenda through bilateral deals and arrangements.
The Limits of Secessionist Rhetoric
President Muse Bihi’s defiant declaration that Somaliland will never rejoin Somalia may play well to his domestic audience, but it rings hollow in the face of the breakaway region’s diminishing control over its claimed territories and its lack of international support.
Somaliland’s unilateral declaration of independence in 1991 has never been recognized by any country or international organization, and its claim to sovereignty remains a matter of dispute and contention. While the region has enjoyed a measure of stability and relative peace compared to the rest of Somalia, its lack of legal recognition and its ongoing territorial disputes have limited its ability to fully assert its independence and authority.
Moreover, Somaliland’s secessionist rhetoric has done little to address the underlying issues and grievances that have fueled the conflict and instability in the region. The breakaway region’s insistence on going it alone has alienated many of its neighbors and potential allies, and has made it more difficult to achieve a negotiated settlement to the long-standing dispute over its status and borders.
