Baidoa, SOMALIA – In a direct rebuke to the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) stance on the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Somalia, politicians from the Southwest State have voiced their strong opposition to the plan. The FGS, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and represented by his National Security Advisor, Hussein Sheikh-Ali, has called for the complete withdrawal of all Ethiopian troops by the end of 2024, when the mandate of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is set to expire. However, this position has been met with significant resistance from Southwest State officials, who fear that the premature removal of Ethiopian forces could create a dangerous security vacuum and pave the way for the resurgence of the Al-Shabab terrorist group.
The opposition from Southwest State politicians comes as no surprise, given the critical role that Ethiopian ATMIS forces currently play in maintaining security in the region. At present, Ethiopian troops are responsible for protecting 10 districts in Southwest State, providing a vital bulwark against the threat of Al-Shabab and other extremist groups. The prospect of these forces being withdrawn without a clear plan for their replacement has raised alarm bells among local officials, who fear that their communities could be left vulnerable to attack and infiltration by terrorist elements.
Ethiopian ATMIS Forces in Southwest State
To understand the depth of concern among Southwest State politicians regarding the proposed withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, it is essential to recognize the crucial role that these troops play in maintaining security and stability in the region. The 10 districts currently under Ethiopian protection are located in strategic areas of Southwest State, bordering regions where Al-Shabab has a significant presence and has carried out numerous attacks in recent years.
The Ethiopian ATMIS contingent in Southwest State, which is estimated to number around 4,000 troops, has been instrumental in preventing the spread of Al-Shabab’s influence and protecting local communities from the group’s brutal tactics. These forces have engaged in regular patrols, intelligence gathering, and targeted operations against Al-Shabab cells, disrupting their ability to plan and execute attacks. They have also provided vital support to the Somali National Army (SNA) and other local security forces, helping to build their capacity and coordinate joint operations against the terrorists.
Without the presence of Ethiopian ATMIS forces, there is a real risk that Al-Shabab could quickly move to fill the security vacuum, seizing control of key towns and villages and using them as a base for further attacks across the region. This would not only pose a direct threat to the lives and livelihoods of countless civilians in Southwest State but could also have broader implications for the stability of the entire country.
Southwest State Politicians Speak Out
The concerns of Southwest State officials regarding the FGS plan for Ethiopian troop withdrawal have been forcefully articulated by several prominent politicians in recent days. One of the most vocal critics has been Hassan Abdinoor, a Member of Parliament from Southwest State in the FGS Parliament. In a series of posts on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter), Abdinoor has argued that the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces must be an “all or nothing” proposition, with all ATMIS troops either staying or leaving together.
Abdinoor’s position reflects a growing sense of unease among Southwest State politicians about the FGS’s apparent willingness to single out Ethiopian forces for withdrawal, while remaining silent on the future of other ATMIS contingents. Many local officials fear that this selective approach could be a deliberate attempt to weaken Southwest State’s security apparatus, leaving it vulnerable to attack by Al-Shabab and other extremist groups.
Other Southwest State politicians who spoke with The Somali Digest on condition of anonymity have expressed similar concerns, with some going so far as to accuse the FGS of deliberately seeking to hand over their regions to Al-Shabab. These officials argue that the FGS’s stance on Ethiopian troop withdrawal is not based on a realistic assessment of the security situation on the ground, but rather on political calculations aimed at undermining the autonomy and stability of federal member states like Southwest.
