Mogadishu, SOMALIA- As Somalia grapples with a myriad of security and political challenges, including the recent scandal involving the theft and sale of rations meant for the elite Danab forces, ongoing clan conflicts, and political instability, a new study has shed light on the potential military balance between the Somali National Army (SNA) and the al-Shabaab terrorist group. The article, written by Paul D. Williams for CTC Sentinel, conducts a net assessment of the likely military strength of the two sides in the event of a complete withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by December 31, 2024. The findings suggest that while the SNA has significant advantages in material dimensions, al-Shabaab’s strengths in sustainability, force employment, cohesion, psychological operations, and morale could give the group a slight overall military advantage.
The SNA’s Material Advantages and Challenges
The assessment highlights the SNA’s significant size advantage over al-Shabaab, with approximately 32,000 personnel compared to the group’s estimated 7,000-12,000 fighters. However, this advantage is tempered by the fact that only about 8,000 SNA troops are mobile “maneuver units,” resulting in rough parity of mobile forces between the two sides.
The SNA also benefits from a larger budget, with defense spending representing nearly 25% of Somalia’s $1.1 billion federal budget in 2024. However, the army remains heavily dependent on external funding, with 70% of its budget coming from donors in 2023. This reliance on external support, while providing access to training, equipment, and resources, also creates dependencies that could prove problematic in the event of an ATMIS withdrawal.
Moreover, the recent scandal involving the theft and sale of rations meant for the elite Danab forces has further undermined the SNA’s credibility and morale. The stoppage of U.S. support for the Danab, which are trained and equipped by the United States to combat al-Shabaab, has dealt a significant blow to the SNA’s counter-terrorism capabilities and raised concerns about the army’s ability to effectively combat the terrorist group.
Al-Shabaab’s Non-Material Strengths and Resilience
In contrast to the SNA’s material advantages, al-Shabaab’s main strengths lie in the sustainability of its operations and its performance in force employment, cohesion, psychological operations, and morale.
The group’s leaner, more sustainable funding model, which generates around $100 million annually from extortion, taxation, and illicit trade according to the report, allows it to maintain its operations with less reliance on external factors. This self-sufficiency, coupled with limited support from al-Qaeda, has enabled al-Shabaab to weather military setbacks and adapt to changing circumstances.
Al-Shabaab’s focus on guerrilla tactics, IED attacks, and exploiting SNA weaknesses has also proved effective in maintaining the strategic stalemate that has persisted since 2014. The group’s greater cohesion, bolstered by its unified structure and sophisticated propaganda apparatus, has allowed it to maintain higher morale and exploit clan-related tensions within the SNA.
The group’s resilience and adaptability have been further demonstrated by its ability to exploit the ongoing political instability and clan conflicts in Somalia. The recent resurgence of clan tensions in various parts of the country has provided al-Shabaab with opportunities to reassert its influence and undermine the Federal Government’s authority.
Implications and Recommendations for Somalia’s Security
The net assessment’s findings have significant implications for Somalia’s security and stability, particularly in light of the country’s ongoing political and social challenges.
To address the SNA’s critical weaknesses and prevent al-Shabaab from gaining a military advantage, the Federal Government must prioritize efforts to improve the army’s non-material factors, such as force employment, cohesion, psychological operations, and morale. This will require a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the SNA’s fragmentation and lack of cohesion, including the implementation of a coherent national security architecture and the standardization of equipment and systems.
The Federal Government must also work to restore public trust in the SNA, which has been eroded by incidents such as the Danab rations scandal. Ensuring transparency, accountability, and effective oversight of the military will be crucial in this regard.
Furthermore, Somalia’s international partners must provide assistance in a manner that promotes self-sufficiency and avoids creating the type of military dependency seen in Afghanistan. This will require a delicate balance between providing necessary support and fostering the development of a sustainable and effective Somali security apparatus.
