Mogadishu, SOMALIA – Reliable sources have informed The Somali Digest of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s plan to scale back and eventually halt its financial support to the Somali National Army (SNA). This decision, critical in the context of Somalia’s ongoing security efforts and battle against insurgency, has raised significant concerns.
The Emiratis have ceased payments for 5 brigades positioned outside Mogadishu, maintaining financial support only for 2 brigades safeguarding the city and one special brigade assigned to protect vital installations. Notably, an assailant from this special brigade launched the attack against the Emiratis last month. Late last year, the Emiratis communicated their decision to halt payments directly to Defense Minister Abdulqadir Mohamed Nur, a warning that he seems to have underestimated.
The withdrawal of UAE support to the SNA is attributed to multiple factors. These include an attack on UAE officers in Mogadishu, which has strained bilateral relations, and Somalia’s diplomatic efforts to maintain amicable relations with a spectrum of regional powers, including the UAE’s rival, Qatar. Moreover, perceived lack of tangible returns on the UAE’s investments in Somalia, especially in light of Turkiye’s advantageous Blue Economy Pact and Hydrocarbons Agreement, and allegations of corruption involving “ghost soldiers” within the UAE-supported troops, have further strained relations.
A source within the Ministry of Defense revealed to The Somali Digest the specifics of the Emirati financial support: each of the 14,400 soldiers across 8 brigades trained by the UAE received $256 monthly, with logistics costs adding up to $2.53 per day per soldier, culminating in a total monthly cost of $331.9 per soldier. This calculation brings the total monthly expenditure to approximately $4.77 million. Additionally, officers received an additional $300 atop their standard SNA salary.
Mobilizing Local Support and Exploring Future Strategies
Anticipating the funding gap, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has engaged local businessmen to discuss temporarily covering troop costs while seeking a more sustainable support mechanism. The feasibility of this solution and the UAE’s willingness to continue its financial commitment to the troops it helped train remain uncertain.
Last month, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took proactive steps by paying the salaries post a thorough review, ensuring no ‘ghost soldiers’ were compensated. This audit revealed that the 5 brigades now operate at less than half their intended capacity, with only 4,465 active soldiers out of an expected 9,000. Each received $200, aligning with standard SNA soldier wages.
Strategic Implications and Somalia’s Path Forward
The reduction of UAE support poses significant challenges for Somalia’s security maintenance and its fight against insurgency. The SNA is crucial for the nation’s stability and counter-extremism efforts. Analysts caution that diminished UAE financial support could impair the SNA’s operational capabilities, potentially leading to security vacuums exploitable by insurgent forces. This situation threatens the gains made through years of international backing and domestic rebuilding efforts.
Moreover, the potential diminution of UAE-trained troops could create substantial gaps in knowledge and skills within the SNA, affecting its effectiveness and cohesion. The challenge of transitioning to alternate funding sources or integrating these troops into other units could intensify Somalia’s security dilemmas.
The UAE’s decision mirrors the intricate geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa, potentially signaling a strategic shift that could influence Somalia’s foreign policy and military self-reliance. This development underscores the necessity for Somalia to enhance governance, address corruption, and diversify its foreign policy to effectively manage the interests of various regional actors.
As Somalia endeavors to secure alternative funding and support to sustain its security forces’ operational readiness, the consequences of failing to do so loom large, threatening the nation’s stability and ongoing insurgency countermeasures.
In summary, the UAE’s phased withdrawal of financial support from the SNA carries profound implications for Somalia’s security situation and regional geopolitical dynamics. Moving forward, it is imperative for the international community and regional stakeholders to collaborate in identifying sustainable solutions that address Somalia’s security challenges while fostering transparency and good governance.