Kismayo, SOMALIA – Jubaland has pushed forward with its electoral process, defying the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) attempts to delegitimize the regional administration and its leadership. The decision by Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe to appoint an electoral commission, which was swiftly approved by the regional parliament, has set the stage for a new chapter in the ongoing struggle for power and legitimacy between the FGS and Somalia’s federal member states.
The move by Jubaland comes in the wake of a contentious statement released by the FGS Ministry of Interior, Federal Affairs and Reconciliation, which rejected the electoral process in Jubaland and declared that President Madobe’s term had expired in August 2023. The statement has raised serious questions about the FGS’s commitment to the principles of federalism and its respect for the autonomy and legitimacy of regional administrations.
In response to the FGS’s attempt to undermine its authority, Jubaland has taken the extraordinary step of suspending all cooperation with the federal government, joining Puntland in cutting ties with Mogadishu. This latest development marks a significant escalation in the ongoing crisis of federalism in Somalia, and raises profound questions about the future of the country’s political landscape and its prospects for stability and unity.
Delegitimizing Madobe while Embracing Him
The FGS’s attempt to delegitimize President Madobe and its previous embrace of him as a key partner in Somalia’s political process has raised questions about the FGS’s sincerity. Just days before the Ministry of Interior’s statement declaring Madobe’s term to have expired, the Jubaland leader was a prominent participant in the National Consultative Council (NCC) meetings in Mogadishu, where he sat alongside other regional leaders and FGS officials to discuss critical issues such as electoral timelines and constitutional reform.
The fact that the FGS saw fit to include Madobe in these high-level discussions, despite its apparent belief that his mandate had expired, raises serious questions about the sincerity and consistency of its position. If the federal government truly believed that Madobe was no longer a legitimate leader, why did it allow him to participate in the NCC and lend his voice to decisions that will shape the future of Somalia?
Moreover, the FGS’s selective targeting of Madobe and Jubaland raises troubling questions about its motivations and its commitment to the principles of federalism and power-sharing. After all, Madobe is far from the only regional leader whose term has technically expired, with many other FMS presidents continuing to govern and participate in national decision-making processes at the NCC despite the lapse of their mandates.
The fact that the FGS has chosen to single out Madobe and Jubaland for condemnation, while turning a blind eye to similar situations in other regions, suggests a deeper political agenda at play. Many observers have speculated that the federal government’s actions are driven by a desire to weaken and isolate Jubaland, which has recently become a thorn in the side of the central government and a champion of regional autonomy and decentralization.
A Blow to the FGS’s Legitimacy
Whatever the motivations behind the FGS’s actions, there is no denying the severity of the blow that Jubaland’s defiance has dealt to the federal government’s legitimacy and authority. By pushing ahead with its electoral process and suspending cooperation with Mogadishu, Jubaland has effectively declared its independence from the central government and its rejection of the FGS’s claim to be the sole legitimate representative of the Somali people.
This act of defiance is all the more significant given Jubaland’s status as one of Somalia’s most powerful and influential federal member states. With a strategic location along the Kenyan border and a history of relative stability and economic growth, Jubaland has long been a key player in Somalia’s political landscape and a counterweight to the central government’s attempts to concentrate power in Mogadishu.
The fact that Jubaland has now joined Puntland in cutting ties with the FGS is a devastating blow to the federal government’s legitimacy and a clear sign of the growing crisis of confidence in its leadership. With two of Somalia’s most important federal member states now openly rejecting the authority of the central government, the FGS’s claim to be the legitimate representative of the Somali people is increasingly in doubt.
Moreover, the fact that both Puntland and Jubaland are predominantly Darod regions further underscores the ethnic and regional dimensions of the current crisis. Many Somalis have long harbored suspicions that the FGS, which is dominated by Hawiye clan interests, is seeking to marginalize and exclude other groups from the country’s political process. The defiance of Puntland and Jubaland, both of which have large Darod populations, is likely to further inflame these tensions and deepen the sense of alienation and distrust felt by many Somalis towards the central government.
