Mogadishu, SOMALIA – The ongoing National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in Mogadishu has hit a major stumbling block, with Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe” firmly rejecting Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s carefully crafted ploy to extend his mandate and that of the federal member state (FMS) presidents. The standoff, which has thrown the high-stakes gathering into disarray, underscores the complex web of political interests and alliances that shape Somalia’s electoral landscape and the daunting challenges facing the country.
At the heart of the current impasse lies President Hassan Sheikh’s controversial proposal to hold direct elections, a move that has been widely seen as a thinly veiled attempt to secure a term extension for himself and his allies in the FMS leadership. Under the guise of needing more time to prepare for the logistical and security challenges of a nationwide vote, the FGS president has sought to delay the electoral process and prolong his tenure in office, a gambit that has been met with fierce resistance from Jubaland’s Madobe and other key stakeholders.
Mandate Extensions and Electoral Maneuvering
President Hassan Sheikh’s bid to extend his mandate through the NCC meeting is a testament to his political acumen and his keen understanding of the levers of power within Somalia’s complex federal system. By framing the issue in terms of the need for direct elections, a long-standing aspiration of many Somalis and a key demand of the international community, the FGS president has sought to cloak his self-serving agenda in the language of democratic reform and popular legitimacy.
However, the proposal has been met with deep skepticism and outright opposition from many quarters, who see it as a cynical attempt to subvert the electoral process and entrench the FGS’s control over the country’s political landscape. The absence of Puntland, a key player in Somalia’s federal dispensation and a vocal critic of President Hassan Sheikh’s centralization efforts, from the NCC meeting has only added to the sense of unease and mistrust surrounding the proceedings.
For Jubaland’s Madobe, the FGS president’s gambit represents a direct threat to his own political future and the autonomy of his state. As one of the most powerful and influential FMS leaders, Madobe has long been a thorn in the side of the central government in Mogadishu, fiercely defending Jubaland’s interests and resisting attempts by the FGS to extend its authority over the region.
By insisting that his administration will hold indirect elections and secure his own re-election, the Jubaland leader has thrown down the gauntlet to the FGS and set the stage for a protracted battle over the future of Somalia’s electoral landscape. Being unpredictable, he might change course if he succeeds in extracting concessions from the FGS.
Madobe’s Shifting Alliances and Political Calculations
During the 2022 presidential election, the Jubaland leader had turned his back on his erstwhile ally, the Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni, covertly supporting President Hassan Sheikh’s candidacy while publicly aligning himself with Puntland and other opposition forces.
This betrayal, which strained relations between Jubaland and Puntland, was widely seen as a self-serving move by Madobe to secure his own interests and extract concessions from the incoming administration in Mogadishu. The fact that he has now apparently reversed course and thrown his weight behind Puntland’s demands for a more inclusive and consultative electoral process has raised eyebrows and fueled speculation about his true motives.
Madobe’s reversal in policy is a reflection of his shrewd political instincts and his ability to navigate Somalia’s treacherous political waters. By seemingly aligning himself with critics of the FGS’s centralization agenda, the Jubaland leader is not only shoring up his own position but also creating leverage to extract further concessions and financial support from President Hassan Sheikh down the line.
This maneuvering, which has become a hallmark of Madobe’s political style, underscores the fluidity and unpredictability of Somalia’s political landscape, where alliances are often fleeting and self-interest reigns supreme.
Unmet Promises
The current standoff over President Hassan Sheikh’s mandate extension ploy is taking place against the backdrop of a series of unmet promises and growing frustration with the slow pace of electoral reform in Somalia. The NCC has repeatedly pledged to hold direct elections and usher in a new era of democratic accountability and transparency.
However, these promises have largely gone unfulfilled, with the FGS and FMS leadership repeatedly failing to meet deadlines and benchmarks for electoral progress. In one particularly egregious example, the NCC had previously resolved to hold nationwide district-level direct elections by June 2024, a deadline that has come and gone with no tangible progress on the ground.
This pattern of unmet commitments and dwindling trust has eroded public confidence in the NCC and the broader political process in Somalia. Many citizens have grown increasingly skeptical of the ability of their leaders to deliver on their promises and effect meaningful change, a sentiment that has been compounded by allegations of corruption, mismanagement, and political interference in the electoral process.
The fact that President Hassan Sheikh is now seeking to use the NCC platform to extend his own mandate and those of his allies in the FMS leadership has only added to the sense of disillusionment and frustration among many Somalis. For them, the FGS president’s gambit is yet another example of the political elite’s tendency to prioritize their own narrow interests over the greater good of the nation.
The Media Wars
As the NCC meeting continues to unfold and the battle lines are drawn between the FGS and Jubaland, the conflict has spilled over into the media sphere, with both sides seeking to control the narrative and shape public opinion. In a startling revelation, the communications team of Jubaland’s President Madobe has accused Villa Somalia of orchestrating a coordinated campaign of online harassment and intimidation against the state and its leadership.
According to screenshots and other evidence shared by Jubaland officials, the FGS has been actively recruiting and paying social media influencers and online trolls to attack Madobe and undermine his credibility in the eyes of the Somali public. These allegations, which have been vehemently denied by the FGS, have sparked outrage and concern among many Somalis, who see them as a troubling sign of the lengths to which the central government is willing to go to silence its critics and consolidate its power.