President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud laid a wreath at the monument commemorating the Battle of Adwa, which has raised eyebrows and sparked speculation about the shifting dynamics of the Somalia-Ethiopia relationship. The visit, coming in the wake of the Ankara Declaration and Ethiopia’s long-standing demands for access to the Somali coastline, has been seen by many as a symbolic concession to Addis Ababa and a signal of Mogadishu’s weakening position.
The optics of the visit were particularly striking, with images of President Mohamud paying tribute to Ethiopia’s military victories over colonial powers at the Battle of Adwa sending a message about the balance of power between the two countries. For many Somalis, these images were a jarring reminder of the historical tensions and grievances that have long defined the Somalia-Ethiopia relationship, and a worrying sign of Mogadishu’s increasing subservience to its larger neighbor.
The Ankara Declaration and Ethiopia’s Coastal Ambitions
One of the most contentious aspects of the declaration was the language surrounding Ethiopia’s access to the sea, which many Somalis saw as a thinly veiled attempt by Addis Ababa to secure ownership of part of the Somali coastline. While the declaration did not explicitly grant Ethiopia any territorial concessions, it did include provisions for “mutually advantageous commercial arrangements” that would allow Ethiopia to “enjoy reliable, secure and sustainable access to and from the sea.”
This language was seen as a dangerous precedent that could pave the way for further Ethiopian encroachment on Somali sovereignty and territorial integrity. The fact that the declaration was signed without the full participation and consent of Somalia’s federal member states only added to the sense of unease and mistrust surrounding the agreement.
A Symbolic Concession or a Strategic Calculation?
In this context, President Mohamud’s visit to Ethiopia and his participation in ceremonies honoring the Ethiopian military can be seen as a symbolic concession to Addis Ababa and a signal of Mogadishu’s willingness to accommodate Ethiopian interests. By laying a wreath at the Battle of Adwa monument, President Mohamud was effectively acknowledging Ethiopia’s military strength and historical achievements, while also signaling his government’s readiness to work with Addis Ababa on issues of mutual concern.
However, it is also possible to view President Mohamud’s visit as a strategic calculation aimed at balancing competing interests and navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. By engaging with Ethiopia and showing a willingness to cooperate on issues of shared interest, Mogadishu may be seeking to build greater leverage and influence in the region, while also hedging against the risk of further Ethiopian encroachment.
This interpretation is bolstered by recent statements from Somali officials, including State Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Balcad, who told the Voice of America that Ethiopia would be appointing an ambassador to Somalia and two consuls to the Ethiopian consulates in Garowe and Hargeisa. While these moves may be seen as concessions to Ethiopian interests, they can also be viewed as a pragmatic recognition of the need to engage with Ethiopia and work towards a more stable and mutually beneficial relationship.
The Limits of Mogadishu’s Influence
At the same time, however, the fact that the Ethiopian consulates in Garowe and Hargeisa have continued to function despite Mogadishu’s earlier demands for their closure underscores the limits of the federal government’s influence and authority. The fact that Addis Ababa has been able to maintain a diplomatic presence in these key regional centers without the full consent and cooperation of Mogadishu is a stark reminder of the challenges facing Somalia’s federal system and the ongoing tensions between the center and the periphery.
This dynamic is further complicated by the fact that many of Somalia’s federal member states, including Puntland and Somaliland, have their own longstanding relationships with Ethiopia and other regional actors, which they have often pursued independently of Mogadishu. The fact that these relationships have continued to evolve and deepen despite the federal government’s efforts to assert greater control over foreign policy is a testament to the resilience and adaptability of Somalia’s regional authorities.
Update: An earlier version of this article incorrectly referred to the force inspected by President Hassan Sheikh as the Ethiopian Navy. It was the Presidential Guards.
