Lascanod, SOMALIA – Abdirashid “Abwan” Yusuf Jibril yesterday renewed his threats to militarily prevent Puntland forces from conducting counter-terrorism operations against Al-Shabab in the Al-Madow mountains, explicitly stating that his ascension to high office would trigger armed confrontation with the very forces that have battled extremists in these territories for over fourteen years. This second iteration of threats, following his 2nd of August declaration denying Al-Shabab’s documented presence in Al-Madow while characterizing counter-terrorism operations as “resource grabs,” transforms suspicion into certainty regarding the administration’s functional role as an extremist shield wrapped in the legitimacy of territorial claims.
The implications of Abwan’s statements reveal a calculated strategy whereby the North East State, which is still confined to eastern Sool with no actual presence in the Sanaag territories it claims, positions itself as Al-Shabab’s de facto protector in the Golis mountain range. His specific promise that fighting against Puntland would commence upon his electoral elevation within the fledgling administration suggests active military collaboration with extremist forces, raising questions about the Federal Government of Somalia’s continued support for an entity whose leadership openly pledges to prevent counter-terrorism operations.
This explicit defense of Al-Shabab’s sanctuary in Al-Madow, combined with the presence of former Al-Shabab commander Abdi Madobe leading fighters in southern SSC-K territories, creates a pattern too consistent for coincidence: the emergence of a para-state entity that provides political and military cover for extremist operations while claiming legitimacy through territorial grievances and federal recognition. The transformation from covert sympathy to overt protection marks a dangerous escalation that threatens not only Puntland’s security architecture but the entire Horn of Africa’s counter-terrorism framework.
The Al-Madow Reality
The Al-Madow mountains have served as Al-Shabab’s northwestern sanctuary for over a decade, their rugged terrain and strategic position providing ideal conditions for training camps, weapons storage, and operational planning. Puntland forces have engaged in costly operations in these mountains since 2010, suffering casualties while preventing extremist expansion into the Gulf of Aden coastal areas and maintaining pressure that limits Al-Shabab’s ability to project force into stable regions. This documented history stands in stark contrast to Abwan’s denialism.
The tactical significance of Al-Madow extends to encompass critical strategic functions for Al-Shabab’s operations. The mountain range provides secure communication nodes linking the group’s southern strongholds with international networks, and facilitates weapons smuggling routes from Yemen. Puntland’s persistent operations, despite the challenging terrain and high casualties, have prevented these capabilities from reaching their full potential—a success that Abwan now explicitly threatens to reverse.
His characterization of these counter-terrorism operations as “resource grabs” reveals deliberate misinformation serving extremist interests. The Al-Madow mountains contain no significant extractable resources that would justify the blood and treasure Puntland has expended in operations there. The only “resource” at stake is the strategic terrain that Al-Shabab requires for its survival and expansion, terrain that Abwan seems determined to preserve for extremist use while preventing legitimate security forces from accessing.
The timing of renewed threats as Puntland intensifies operations following successful captures of foreign ISIS fighters and the ongoing offensive declared by President Deni suggests coordination between North East State rhetoric and extremist operational needs. When counter-terrorism pressure increases, political obstacles emerge through figures like Abwan who provide pseudo-legitimate justifications for preventing security operations. This synchronization between political statements and terrorist requirements represents classic hybrid warfare where extremist groups utilize political proxies to achieve military objectives.
The Trojan Horse Mechanism
The North East State’s evolution from a localized grievance movement into an active shield for Al-Shabab operations demonstrates sophisticated understanding of how territorial claims can be weaponized to serve extremist interests.This exploitation of sovereignty concepts to protect terrorist sanctuaries represents an innovation in extremist strategy that deserves careful analysis.
Abwan’s specific threat reveals the mechanism through which political legitimacy translates into extremist protection. Once holding official position within a federally recognized entity, he could frame attacks on counter-terrorism forces as “territorial defense” rather than extremist collaboration. International partners, bound by diplomatic protocols recognizing federal structures, would face pressure to treat conflicts between Puntland and North East State as political disputes rather than security operations against terrorist enablers.
The Federal Government of Somalia’s role in enabling this Trojan horse mechanism through its recognition and support of the North East State despite clear evidence of extremist sympathy reveals either catastrophic strategic blindness or deliberate facilitation. Mogadishu effectively deputizes Al-Shabab protectors as legitimate administrators. This pattern which is consistent with federal undermining of all effective counter-terrorism efforts in favor of political warfare against successful regions suggests deliberate policy rather than mere incompetence.
