Mogadishu, SOMALIA — Former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble today disclosed that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud explicitly stated during recent meetings with the opposition that he neither interested in inclusive governance nor would he engage with Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe or Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni, declaring that his successor would be the one to deal with them, a statement that crystallizes the Federal Government’s systematic campaign to conduct national elections while excluding the two most stable and successful federal member states from the process.
This disclosure, emerging from an opposition figure with intimate knowledge of federal decision-making processes, transforms suspected intentions into confirmed strategy. The president’s words represent a fundamental rejection of the federal compact that theoretically binds Somalia together. The implications cascade beyond immediate electoral concerns to questions of legitimacy, sovereignty, and the very possibility of maintaining a unified Somali state.
The revelation provides the missing interpretive key for understanding recent federal actions that otherwise appear strategically incoherent. The deployment of forces to Ras Kamboni following Jubaland’s democratic elections, the investment in militias to destabilize Puntland’s Sanaag region, the obstruction of development projects, and the systematic campaign to fragment stable regions through unconstitutional means—all these seemingly disparate actions cohere into a unified strategy aimed at conducting a truncated electoral process that excludes regions that refuse federal domination. This approach, while solving President Hassan Sheikh’s immediate political problems, guarantees the perpetuation and intensification of every crisis currently plaguing Somalia.
Engineering Elections
The president’s declaration that his successor would handle relations with Puntland and Jubaland reveals sophisticated planning for an electoral process designed to ensure predetermined outcomes. Hassan Sheikh is creating conditions for a managed election that maintains the facade of democratic transition while guaranteeing continuity of the current power structure, either through his own unconstitutional extension or through a handpicked successor who emerges from a process lacking national legitimacy.
This exclusionary approach represents an evolution from previous electoral manipulations in Somalia. Where past presidents attempted to control outcomes through bribery, intimidation, or procedural delays while maintaining universal participation, Hassan Sheikh pioneers a model of selective democracy that simply eliminates opposing voices from the process entirely. The sophistication lies in creating legal and political justifications for exclusion by labeling democratically elected leaders as illegitimate, manufacturing constitutional crises, and provoking conflicts that provide pretexts for non-engagement.
The mechanics of conducting elections without Puntland and Jubaland participation would require fundamental restructuring of Somalia’s electoral systems. The provisional constitution assumes federal state participation in selecting parliamentary representatives who then choose the president. Excluding two major states would necessitate either constitutional amendments, impossible without the very states being excluded, or extraconstitutional procedures that would fatally undermine the legitimacy of outcomes. Yet the Federal Government appears prepared to embrace illegitimacy rather than accept constraints on executive power.
Former Prime Minister Roble’s decision to publicize this revelation suggests growing alarm within Somalia’s political class about the trajectory of federal governance. As someone who experienced firsthand the constraints of working under Hassan Sheikh’s predecessor and observed the current administration’s methods, Roble’s disclosure carries particular weight. His willingness to break the code of silence that typically governs elite political discussions indicates recognition that extraordinary measures are needed to prevent Somalia’s complete fragmentation.
