Ethiopia’s Entry into AUSSOM: Will Somalia’s Gamble Pay Off?

As Somalia prepares for the transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), there are growing indications that Ethiopia may play a significant role in the new mission. This development marks a significant shift in the dynamics of Somalia’s relations with its neighbors and has the potential to reshape the country’s security landscape in the coming years.

AUSSOM, whose mandate officially began on 1 January 2024, envisions a more prominent role for Somali security forces in taking charge of the country’s security. While the funding mechanism for the new mission has not yet been fully secured, the transition is expected to bring about significant changes in the way that international support for Somalia’s security sector is structured and delivered.

Ethiopia’s Involvement

Ethiopia’s likely involvement in AUSSOM is a particularly noteworthy development, given the complex history of relations between Somalia and its larger neighbor. In the past, tensions between the two countries have been strained by Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland.

However, there have been signs of a thawing of relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, following the Ankara Declaration. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has taken steps to normalize ties with Ethiopia, including through high-level diplomatic engagements.

Ethiopia’s potential participation in AUSSOM is seen by some as a further indication of this warming of relations, and a sign that both countries are seeking to build a more constructive and mutually beneficial partnership in the years ahead. However, others have expressed concerns about the implications of Ethiopia’s involvement for Somalia’s sovereignty and independence, given the country’s history of intervention in Somali affairs.

The Controversy Surrounding Burundi’s Exclusion

One of the more controversial aspects of Ethiopia’s likely involvement in AUSSOM has been the apparent exclusion of Burundi from the new mission. Burundi has been a significant contributor to AMISOM and later ATMIS since 2007, and has played a key role in supporting Somalia’s efforts to combat the threat posed by Al-Shabab and other extremist groups.

However, the FGS has been pushing for Burundi’s exclusion from AUSSOM, in what some have described as an effort to “bully” the country out of the mission. Burundian officials have expressed outrage at what they see as a betrayal by the FGS.

The controversy surrounding Burundi’s exclusion has raised questions about the motivations behind the FGS’s decision, and the potential implications for Somalia’s relations with other troop-contributing countries in the region.

Potential Pitfalls of Somalia’s Reliance on Ethiopia

The FGS hopes that a deeper partnership with Addis Ababa, built upon the Ankara Declaration, will bring renewed military strength and resources that can shore up Somalia’s ongoing battle against Al-Shabab.

However, pushing out traditional partners like Burundi—who contributed substantially under AMISOM and ATMIS—may sow distrust among other regional allies. If Ethiopia’s involvement proves less beneficial than hoped or is complicated by Ethiopia’s own internal and regional challenges, Mogadishu may regret decisions that undervalued its longstanding partnerships. This would be amplified if Ethiopia wields its enhanced role to influence Somalia’s internal affairs, effectively limiting the FGS’s policy autonomy.

Thus, while Ethiopia’s inclusion in AUSSOM signals a forward-looking approach to regional security, it also exposes Somalia to the risks inherent in relying heavily on a single, historically complicated ally. The success of this pivot—and whether Mogadishu avoids future regrets—will depend on the FGS’s ability to maintain balance, diversify its partnerships, and preserve enough political and military independence to ensure that Somalia’s long-term interests remain firmly under Somali control.