Mogadishu, SOMALIA – The abrupt cancellation of the National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting by the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) of Somalia last night has exposed deepening fissures within the alliance between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS) in the south. The official reason given for the cancellation, cited as “technical reasons,” has been met with skepticism, as sources reveal a more complex web of political maneuvering and constitutional disputes behind the scenes.
Insiders have informed The Somali Digest that the presidents of Jubaland and Southwest, two key FMS allies of the FGS, had expressed their unwillingness to attend the NCC meeting. Their reluctance stems from ongoing efforts to hold independent elections within their respective states, a move that directly contradicts the provisions of the new Constitution and previous NCC agreements stipulating that the Ministry of the Interior of the FGS should oversee both FMS and FGS elections.
Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland is seeking to amend his state’s Constitution to eliminate the two-term limit for presidents, reflecting a strategy to extend his power, much like President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s constitutional reforms in Mogadishu. While Madobe aims to secure a longer tenure, President Mohamud is focused on broadening the FGS’s powers through a new Constitution, despite facing resistance from various FMSs. These concurrent constitutional changes in Mogadishu and Jubaland illustrate the complex and interlinked efforts by Somali leaders to consolidate control amidst widespread political challenges.
These individual actions reflect a larger pattern of governance issues that are now manifesting in broader constitutional and political strategies across the country
FGS Seeks to Extend Its Reach
The FGS, under the leadership of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has been actively pushing for greater centralization of power, with the new Constitution serving as a key instrument in this endeavor. By requiring the Ministry of the Interior to manage elections at both the federal and state levels, the FGS seeks to exert influence over the selection of FMS leadership, effectively allowing Mogadishu to handpick the successors to Ahmed Madobe and Abdiasis Laftagaren, the current presidents of Jubaland and Southwest, respectively. The FGS aims to use the NCC as a platform to push through these changes and extend its reach, but the FMS leaders have not failed to notice this power play.
The FMS leaders now view the FGS’s plans as a direct threat to their autonomy and the delicate balance of power that the federal system has maintained. The decision by Jubaland and Southwest to proceed with their own elections is a clear indication of their resistance to Mogadishu’s attempts to consolidate control and undermine the authority of the FMSs. The NCC has become a battleground for these competing interests.
The Unraveling of an Alliance
The cancellation of the NCC meeting and the underlying constitutional disputes suggest that the alliance of convenience between the southern FMSs and Mogadishu may be reaching a breaking point. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud now faces a difficult choice: either accommodate the FMS demands and accept that his centralization efforts and anti-Puntland actions have failed, or confront the FMSs head-on and risk weakening his own administration politically.
Either way, the current situation exposes the fragility of Somalia’s federal system and the deep-rooted mistrust between the central government and the regional states. The FGS’s attempts to extend its reach and control over the FMSs have backfired, leading to a hardening of positions and a potential unraveling of the very alliances that have been instrumental in maintaining a semblance of stability in the country.
The political maneuvering and constitutional disputes also raise questions about the priorities of Somalia’s leaders, as they appear to be more focused on consolidating their own power than addressing the pressing needs of the Somali people. The government and the NCC could therefore have better utilized the time and resources spent on these internal power struggles to tackle the country’s numerous challenges, including security threats, economic instability, and social issues.
