Mogadishu, SOMALIA – Al-Shabab militants have successfully established a network of bases in strategic locations just north of Mogadishu, in the farms of former President Ali Mahdi. The move, which has seen the terrorist group set up administrative and tax collection hubs in an area ostensibly under government control, has sent shockwaves through the city and raised alarming questions about the ability of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to maintain even a semblance of authority in the face of Al-Shabab’s relentless insurgency.
The government’s response to the crisis, which saw the deployment of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) personnel and the elite Haramcad police unit to dismantle the bases today, has done little to allay the fears of Mogadishu’s residents. While the security forces were successful in temporarily dislodging the militants, their rapid withdrawal from the area has left a dangerous power vacuum that many fear will quickly be filled by Al-Shabab, undoing any short-lived gains and further undermining public confidence in the government’s ability to protect its citizens.
A City Under Siege
The establishment of Al-Shabab bases in the outskirts of Mogadishu is just the latest manifestation of the group’s resurgence in Mogadishu, a disturbing trend that has seen the militants exploit the city’s porous security landscape to expand their reach and tighten their grip on the population. Despite years of counter-terrorism operations and the efforts of the FGS and its international partners to degrade the group’s capabilities, Al-Shabab has demonstrated a remarkable resilience and adaptability, consistently finding new ways to infiltrate the city and sow fear and chaos among its residents.
The Ali Mahdi Farm, which has reportedly been used by Al-Shabab to collect taxes and administer their harsh brand of justice, are a particularly egregious example of the group’s growing influence in Mogadishu. By forcing residents to travel to these locations to pay tributes and seek legal recourse, Al-Shabab has effectively established a parallel system of governance that threatens to undermine the legitimacy and authority of the FGS, further eroding the already fragile social contract between the state and its citizens.
Moreover, the presence of these bases in such close proximity to the city center, just kilometers from the seat of government power, is a chilling testament to Al-Shabab’s ability to operate with impunity in the very heart of Mogadishu. This brazen expansion of the group’s territorial control not only undermines the government’s claims of progress in the fight against terrorism but also serves as a powerful propaganda tool for Al-Shabab, bolstering its image as a formidable and unassailable force in the eyes of potential recruits and sympathizers.
Overstretched and Under-Resourced
The FGS’s inability to prevent the establishment of Al-Shabab bases near Mogadishu and its struggle to maintain control over the area in the wake of the initial security operation are symptomatic of the broader challenges facing Somalia’s beleaguered government. Overstretched, under-resourced, and beset by internal divisions and dysfunction, the FGS has consistently failed to mount an effective and sustainable response to the Al-Shabab threat, leaving vast swathes of the country, including parts of the capital, vulnerable to infiltration and attack.
This has exposed the glaring limitations of the government’s counter-terrorism strategy, which has often been characterized by sporadic and uncoordinated military operations that fail to address the underlying drivers of the insurgency. The rapid withdrawal of NISA and Haramcad forces from the area following the initial assault on the Al-Shabab bases is a prime example of this shortcoming, highlighting the government’s inability to maintain a persistent presence in liberated areas and its failure to build the trust and support of local communities.
This lack of a sustained and comprehensive approach to counter-terrorism has allowed Al-Shabab to regroup and rebound after each setback, exploiting the gaps and weaknesses in the government’s security apparatus to establish new bases of operation and expand its influence.
