The resurgence of Al-Shabab activity in and around Mogadishu, including the group’s ability to patrol and contest key suburbs such as Elisha Biyaha, Hawa Abdi, and Dayniile, has raised alarming questions about the effectiveness of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership and the direction of Somalia’s fight against extremism. As the security situation in the capital continues to deteriorate, with Al-Shabab militants increasingly able to operate with impunity in areas previously considered relatively secure, it is becoming clear that the president’s policies and priorities have failed to address the root causes of the insurgency and have instead contributed to a dangerous erosion of the government’s authority and legitimacy.
Since taking office in May 2022, President Mohamud has repeatedly pledged to make the defeat of Al-Shabab his top priority, promising to mobilize the resources and political will necessary to eliminate the group as a threat to Somalia’s stability and security. However, despite these public commitments, the president’s actions and decisions have often seemed to prioritize other, more parochial concerns, such as consolidating his own power and influence within the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), and engaging in political feuds with federal member states (FMS) like Puntland and Jubaland.
As a result, the fight against Al-Shabab has often taken a backseat to these other issues, with the government’s military and security efforts hampered by a lack of resources, coordination, and strategic direction. This has allowed the insurgent group to regroup and expand its operations, particularly in the crucial battleground of the Benadir region surrounding Mogadishu, where it has exploited the vacuum created by the government’s neglect and mismanagement to establish a strong and resilient presence.
The Resurgence of Al-Shabab in Mogadishu’s Suburbs
The most visible and alarming manifestation of Al-Shabab’s resurgence in recent weeks has been the group’s ability to operate openly and with apparent impunity in several key suburbs of Mogadishu, including Elisha Biyaha, Hawa Abdi, and Dayniile. These areas, which are located on the outskirts of the city and have long been considered crucial battlegrounds in the fight against the insurgency, have seen a marked increase in Al-Shabab activity, with militants reportedly setting up checkpoints and even conducting patrols and attacks on government and civilian targets.
According to local residents and security officials, Al-Shabab fighters have been able to move freely through these suburbs. In some cases, the militants have even been able to establish permanent bases and staging areas, using them to launch attacks on nearby districts and to assert their control over the local population.
The situation in Elisha Biyaha, located just a few kilometers to the west of central Mogadishu, has been particularly dire, with Al-Shabab militants reportedly openly patrolling several neighborhoods at night.
Similar reports have emerged from other suburbs, including Hawa Abdi and Dayniile, where Al-Shabab militants have been able to operate with relative ease and have even managed to push back government forces in some areas.
The Failures of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Policies and Priorities
The resurgence of Al-Shabab in Mogadishu’s suburbs is a clear and damning indictment of President Hassan Shekh Mohamud’s leadership and the failures of his policies and priorities in the fight against extremism.
One of the most glaring examples of this has been the president’s focus on consolidating his own power and influence within the FGS, often at the expense of building the kind of broad-based political support and unity that is necessary to effectively combat Al-Shabab. From the early days of his presidency, Mohamud has been accused of using his office to reward loyalists and punish rivals, including by appointing close allies to key positions in the government and security forces and by sidelining or even arresting those who have opposed his agenda.
This has contributed to a deeply polarized and dysfunctional political environment in Mogadishu, with rival factions and interest groups constantly jockeying for power and influence, and with little incentive for compromise or cooperation in the face of the existential threat posed by Al-Shabab. As a result, the government has often seemed paralyzed and unable to take decisive action to address the insurgency, with key decisions and initiatives constantly being delayed or undermined by political infighting and maneuvering.
Another major failing of President Mohamud’s leadership has been his government’s ongoing problems with corruption and mismanagement, which have undermined the effectiveness and credibility of the FGS and have contributed to a growing sense of public frustration and disillusionment. Despite repeated pledges to crack down on graft and improve transparency and accountability, the government has been plagued by a series of high-profile scandals and controversies, including allegations of embezzlement, nepotism, and abuse of power at the highest levels of the administration.
These problems have not only drained resources and attention away from the fight against Al-Shabab, but have also eroded public trust in the government and its institutions, making it harder for the FGS to mobilize the kind of popular support and participation that is necessary to defeat the insurgency.
Perhaps most damaging of all, however, has been President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s decision to prioritize political feuds and power struggles with federal member states like Puntland and Jubaland, at the expense of building the kind of cooperative and unified approach that is necessary to effectively combat Al-Shabab. Rather than working to build strong and productive partnerships with these key regional actors, the president has instead sought to undermine and isolate them, often by using the resources and influence of the FGS to back rival political factions and militias.
This has not only diverted critical resources and attention away from the fight against Al-Shabab, but has also created dangerous new fault lines and sources of instability in an already fragile and volatile country. By weakening and dividing the forces that should be united in confronting the insurgency, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has effectively played into the hands of Al-Shabab, allowing the group to exploit the gaps and weaknesses in the government’s security architecture to expand its influence and control.
