One year after Mogadishu unilaterally enacted a controversial new Constitution on March 31, 2024, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has called for a national political conference. The move comes amid escalating turmoil: the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is losing ground to Al-Shabab, Puntland and Jubaland have severed ties with the central government, and the country faces an existential security threat as Al-Shabab encircles Mogadishu.
The call for dialogue marks a stark reversal for Hassan Sheikh, who famously dismissed calls for political inclusion with his assertive slogan “Loo Joojin Maa” (“Not stopping for anyone”). Now, weakened by a crumbling political alliance and mounting military failures, he faces no choice but to engage with the very stakeholders he once sidelined.
The Fallout from the 2024 Constitution
The enactment of the 2024 Constitution fractured Somalia’s fragile federal structure. Puntland, the semi-autonomous region in northeastern Somalia, was the first to sever ties. Leaders in Puntland accused Mogadishu of imposing the Constitution without proper consultation, a direct affront to Somalia’s federal principles. Puntland’s subsequent withdrawal of recognition from the FGS signaled the region’s rejection of centralized authority.
Simultaneously, tensions escalated with Jubaland, a region already plagued by complex clan politics and a precarious security situation. The FGS’s ill-fated military intervention in Jubaland, aimed at removing the region’s president, Ahmed Madobe, only deepened the divide. Not only did the operation fail militarily, but it also eroded the FGS’s legitimacy, further emboldening Al-Shabab in the region.
While political fragmentation accelerated, Al-Shabab seized the opportunity to reclaim lost territories. Gains made since 2022, achieved through joint Somali and African Union operations, are now rapidly unraveling. With Puntland and Jubaland withdrawing from federal cooperation, the Somali National Army (SNA) lost crucial operational support. Al-Shabab, adept at exploiting political disarray, intensified its campaigns, successfully encircling Mogadishu.
The militant group now controls major supply routes, effectively isolating the capital. Attacks on key towns like Adale and Masajid Ali Gadud demonstrate its expanding influence. Fear is mounting that Al-Shabab’s encirclement could culminate in an assault on Mogadishu, a scenario reminiscent of the pre-2011 era when the group ruled large swathes of the country.
The Failed Strategy
Throughout the past year, Hassan Sheikh’s administration operated on the premise that centralized authority could be imposed by sidelining regional leaders. His “Loo Joojin May” rhetoric projected defiance against political opposition. Yet this governance style, rooted in unilateral decision-making, only exacerbated fragmentation.
Ignoring the grievances of Puntland and Jubaland, Hassan Sheikh banked on military dominance to assert control. However, Somalia’s overstretched and underfunded military could not sustain offensives against Al-Shabab while also engaging in politically motivated operations. The failed attempt to oust Ahmed Madobe in Jubaland not only squandered military resources but also undermined morale within the SNA.
Furthermore, international partners grew wary of Mogadishu’s authoritarian approach. While Somalia remains dependent on external military and financial support, Hassan Sheikh’s adversarial stance alienated key allies. The lack of coordinated regional cooperation also diminished the efficacy of counter-terrorism operations.
