Kismayo, SOMALIA – In what was officially presented as a mission focused on counterterrorism, federalization, and improving public welfare, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Kismayo unveils layers of political strategy. The cordial welcome extended by Jubaland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Madobe, signals more than mere diplomatic courtesy. This engagement highlights a complex political negotiation, where Madobe’s proposition to expedite snap elections in Jubaland emerges as a pivotal element of the discussions. The intricate dance of political concessions, including Madobe’s support for President Hassan Sheikh’s push to amend the constitution, reveals the multifaceted nature of their priorities and the lengths to which they will go to secure their political objectives
At the heart of President Hassan Sheikh’s agenda is an unmistakable focus on amending the Provisional Constitution of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). This ambition, however, raises critical questions about his prioritization of political battles over the immediate and pressing fight against Al-Shabab. The extension granted to Madobe, which effectively prolongs his term beyond the originally set deadline of August 2023, appears to be a strategic concession by President Hassan Sheikh. This move suggests that amending the constitution takes precedence over consolidating efforts to eliminate terrorist threats.
Constitutional Ambitions Versus Unity and Counterterrorism
Critics argue that if President Hassan Sheikh were genuinely committed to the war against Al-Shabab, he would not divert attention and resources towards political contests that are arguably unnecessary at this juncture. This perspective gained further traction following a public statement released by two former Presidents, Sheikh Sharif and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. They criticized President Hassan Sheikh for his apparent rejection of political rapprochement with President Said Abdullahi Deni. Instead, they accuse him of engaging in hostilities against Puntland and pushing for constitutional changes without widespread support.
This criticism highlights a profound disconnect between the President’s stated objectives and his actions, suggesting a prioritization of constitutional amendments over national security and unity. The opposition from key political figures underscores the contentious nature of the proposed amendments and raises concerns about their potential to destabilize the already fragile political landscape in Somalia.
The Political Dynamics at Play
The visit to Kismayo and the engagement with Madobe and other Jubaland officials reveal a complex political dynamic wherein President Hassan Sheikh seems willing to negotiate political alliances and make concessions that may have far-reaching implications. This strategic positioning indicates a calculated effort to secure support for the constitutional amendments, even at the cost of exacerbating divisions within the country’s political fabric.
Sources suggest that Ahmed Madobe has expressed a desire to hold quick snap elections in Jubaland before the previously agreed date in the NCC meeting in May 2023. This move, ostensibly aimed at refreshing Jubaland’s political landscape, also serves as a bargaining chip in negotiations with President Hassan Sheikh. Madobe’s willingness to support the constitutional amendments sought by the President Hassan Sheikh hinges on this political concession. Such a demand underscores the transactional nature of political negotiations in Somalia, where constitutional reforms and electoral timelines become intertwined in the quest for power and influence.
This arrangement between President Hassan Sheikh and Madobe illustrates the pragmatic, albeit controversial, strategies leaders are willing to employ to achieve their political objectives. By acceding to Madobe’s request for early elections, President Hassan Sheikh may secure the necessary support for the constitutional amendments. However, this strategy is not without risks. It has the potential to irreversibly damage the relationship between the FGS and Puntland for the remainder of Hassan Sheikh’s term, if constitutional amendments are done in the manner. Furthermore, it raises questions about the sincerity of commitments to democratic processes and the broader implications for Somalia’s political future.
The focus on constitutional amendments, to the detriment of a unified strategy against Al-Shabab, risks sidelining crucial national security concerns. It suggests a potentially flawed assessment of priorities that could undermine efforts to stabilize the country and address the underlying issues that fuel conflict and terrorism.
Moreover, the approach taken by President Hassan Sheikh, as critiqued by former presidents and political observers, points to a broader issue of governance and leadership in Somalia. The pursuit of constitutional changes without broad-based support not only challenges the principles of democratic governance but also threatens to deepen political divisions and hinder the path towards peace and stability.
President Hassan Sheikh’s strategy seems to underscore a preference for constitutional amendments over unity and addressing the critical issue of terrorism head-on. This approach, coupled with the criticism from former presidents and the contentious political climate it fosters, raises significant questions about the future direction of Somalia. As the country grapples with these challenges, the need for a balanced, inclusive, and security-focused leadership has never been more apparent. The decisions made in the coming days will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Somalia’s governance, security, and its people’s well-being.
