Mogadishu, SOMALIA – The cabinet of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) on Thursday passed a motion to send a proposed elections bill to Parliament. This action, however, is not just controversial—it’s patently illegal. The cabinet’s decision blatantly ignores the existence of an elections law already passed by Parliament and signed into law by the President in 2020, throwing Somalia’s constitutional crisis into sharp relief.
This new bill, far from advancing Somalia’s democratic aspirations, appears tailor-made to facilitate governmental overreach. It introduces ambiguous and ill-defined “national emergencies” as potential grounds for extending the government’s mandate—a provision that, in a country where crises are a near-constant, could easily be abused. Given Somalia’s history of political instability and the regularity with which it faces various challenges, this clause could effectively provide a perpetual justification for postponing elections and extending terms of office.
The timing and nature of this proposed bill unmask it as yet another blatant attempt by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to overstay his mandate, deepening Somalia’s constitutional crisis. This move follows a disturbing pattern of power consolidation that has characterized Hassan Sheikh’s second term, raising alarm bells among observers of Somali politics and advocates for democratic governance in the Horn of Africa.
Hassan Sheikh’s March Power Play
The proposed elections bill must be viewed in the context of President Hassan Sheikh’s earlier constitutional manipulations. In March of this year, Somalia’s constitutional crisis took a dramatic turn when Hassan Sheikh unilaterally pushed through changes to the constitution. These amendments altered the balance of power within the Somali government, tilting it decisively in the President’s favor.
The constitutional changes extended the President’s term from four to five years, a move that would allow Hassan Sheikh to remain in office beyond his original mandate. More alarmingly, these amendments significantly expanded presidential powers while simultaneously weakening the position of the Prime Minister. This power grab strikes at the heart of Somalia’s delicate power-sharing arrangement—a system painstakingly negotiated to maintain a semblance of balance among Somalia’s complex clan dynamics and political factions.
By centralizing power in the presidency, Hassan Sheikh has not only exacerbated Somalia’s constitutional crisis but has also undermined the very foundations of the country’s fragile political stability. The weakening of the Prime Minister’s role, in particular, threatens to upset the carefully calibrated system of checks and balances that has, despite its imperfections, helped to prevent any single individual or faction from dominating Somalia’s political landscape.
Echoes of 2021
The FGS’s push for this new electoral bill, even if forced through Parliament in a manner similar to the constitutional changes, is unlikely to translate into a smooth implementation on the ground. Instead, it threatens to reignite the violent political confrontations that scarred Mogadishu in 2021, further deepening Somalia’s constitutional crisis. The parallels between the current situation and the events of 2021 are both striking and deeply concerning.
In 2021, Somalia witnessed a dangerous escalation of political tensions when then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted to use the 2020 elections bill to secure his re-election. The result was a near-collapse of the state apparatus, with parts of the Somali National Army (SNA) mutinying and running battles erupting in the streets of Mogadishu. Ironically, much of the armed uprising against Farmaajo’s power grab was personally led by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, then a prominent opposition figure.
The fact that Hassan Sheikh now appears to be employing similar tactics to those he once vehemently opposed underscores the cyclical nature of Somalia’s constitutional crisis. It raises serious questions about the sincerity of political leaders’ commitment to democratic principles and the rule of law. Hassan Sheikh is now resorting to the very same strategies that he once condemned as destabilizing and undemocratic.
