The Presidents of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud; Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki; and Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, convened in Asmara for a high-stakes summit aimed at forging closer relations and addressing the complex web of regional tensions and disputes. The gathering, set against the backdrop of growing Somali-Ethiopian and Egypt-Ethiopian tensions, signals the emergence of a new strategic alliance that could potentially squeeze Ethiopia and lead the region into more turbulent waters. This significant realignment of interests and alliances could have far-reaching implications for stability, security, and economic development in the Horn of Africa and beyond.
The Asmara summit brings together three key players in the region’s geopolitical chessboard, each with its own set of priorities, concerns, and ambitions. For Somalia, the meeting represents an opportunity to shore up its position vis-à-vis Ethiopia, its powerful neighbor and long-time rival, and to secure new partnerships and alliances.
For Eritrea, the summit is a chance to reaffirm its role as a key diplomatic and strategic player in the region, one that has long sought to position itself as a counterweight to Ethiopia’s growing influence and assertiveness. And for Egypt, the meeting is a critical opportunity to build new alliances and partnerships that can help it safeguard its vital interests in the Nile River basin, particularly in light of the ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its potential impact on Egypt’s water security.
According to the Eritrean broadcaster, the leaders of Eritrea and Egypt, President Isaias Afwerki and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, held bilateral discussions on the development of their relations and opportunities for further growth, as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest. The two leaders agreed on the importance of upholding international law principles as the basis for regional peace, stability, and cooperation, and stressed the need to prevent interference in the affairs of countries in the region, foster concerted efforts to ensure regional stability, and create an enabling environment for sustainable common development.
The Somali-Ethiopian Tensions
The memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which grants Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s ports in exchange for recognition, has been met with fierce opposition from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), which views it as a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The dispute over the Somaliland MoU has become a major flashpoint in the broader struggle for power and influence in the Horn of Africa, with the FGS accusing Ethiopia of interfering in its internal affairs and undermining its territorial integrity. This has led to a significant deterioration in relations between the two countries, with the FGS recalling its ambassador to Ethiopia and expelling the Ethiopian envoy in response to the signing of the MoU.
Another key point of contention between Somalia and Ethiopia is the planned withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and the post-ATMIS security arrangements. The FGS has been pushing for the complete withdrawal of Ethiopian troops if the MoU is not rescinded, arguing that their presence undermines Somalia’s sovereignty and independence. However, some regional states, particularly Southwest State, have opposed this move, citing the need for continued Ethiopian military support to maintain security and stability in the face of the ongoing threat posed by Al-Shabab.
Against this backdrop, the Asmara summit represents a significant shift in Somalia’s strategic calculus, one that seeks to capitalize on the growing tensions between Ethiopia and other regional players, particularly Egypt and Eritrea, in order to strengthen its own position and secure new partnerships and alliances. By aligning itself more closely with these countries, Somalia hopes to gain greater leverage in its dealings with Ethiopia and to push back against what it sees as Addis Ababa’s increasingly hegemonic ambitions in the region.
The Egypt-Ethiopia Dispute
The other key factor driving the current realignment of strategic interests in the Horn of Africa is the ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the GERD and its potential impact on the Nile River basin. The GERD, a massive hydroelectric dam project being built by Ethiopia on the Blue Nile River, has been a source of tension and controversy between the two countries for years, with Egypt viewing it as a direct threat to its water security and Ethiopia seeing it as a critical component of its economic development and energy security strategy.
The dispute over the GERD has taken on added significance in recent years, as the project has neared completion and the prospect of its operation has become more imminent. For Egypt, which relies on the Nile River for virtually all of its freshwater needs, the GERD represents an existential threat to its water security and a potential source of instability and conflict in the region. Cairo has long argued that the dam will significantly reduce the flow of water downstream, particularly during periods of drought, and has called for a binding agreement on the filling and operation of the dam that takes into account the needs and concerns of all riparian states.
Ethiopia, for its part, has rejected these calls and has insisted on its right to develop its own water resources and energy infrastructure without external interference. Addis Ababa has argued that the GERD will bring significant benefits to the region as a whole, including increased energy security, economic development, and regional integration, and has accused Egypt of trying to maintain its historic dominance over the Nile River basin at the expense of other riparian states.
The dispute over the GERD has taken on added urgency in recent months, as Ethiopia has begun the process of filling the dam’s reservoir and has signaled its intention to move forward with the project despite the objections of Egypt and other downstream states. This has raised the stakes for all parties involved and has fueled fears of a potential water war in the region, one that could have devastating consequences for millions of people who depend on the Nile River for their livelihoods and survival.
A New Strategic Alignment in the Horn of Africa
It is against this backdrop of growing regional tensions and disputes that the Asmara summit takes on added significance. By bringing together the leaders of Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, the meeting represents a new strategic alignment in the Horn of Africa, one that seeks to counter the growing influence and assertiveness of Ethiopia and to safeguard the interests and priorities of its members.
For Somalia, the summit is an opportunity to strengthen its ties with two key regional players that have long been at odds with Ethiopia. A critical outcome of these strengthened relations is the recently signed defense pact between Somalia and Egypt.
Eritrea, in particular, has a long and complicated history with Ethiopia, having fought a devastating border war with its neighbor in the late 1990s and early 2000s that left tens of thousands dead and resulted in a protracted political and diplomatic standoff. Since then, Eritrea has sought to position itself as a counterweight to Ethiopia’s regional ambitions, and has forged close ties with other countries in the region, including Egypt.
Egypt, for its part, has long viewed Ethiopia as a potential rival and threat to its own interests in the Nile River basin. The GERD dispute has only further heightened these tensions, and has led Cairo to seek out new partnerships and alliances in the region that can help it safeguard its water security and maintain its influence in the Horn of Africa.
By aligning itself more closely with these countries, Somalia hopes to gain greater leverage in its dealings with Ethiopia and to push back against what it sees as Addis Ababa’s increasingly hegemonic ambitions in the region. The Asmara summit is a clear signal of this new strategic alignment, and a recognition of the growing importance of regional cooperation and collaboration in addressing the complex challenges facing the Horn of Africa.
The joint statement issued by the leaders of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia following their trilateral discussions underscored their commitment to developing and deepening bilateral relations, strengthening Somalia’s national institutions and army to combat terrorism, and preserving Somalia’s land and sea borders and territorial integrity. The establishment of a joint committee to maintain regular contacts between the three countries further highlights the significance of this new strategic partnership.
