DHUSAMAREB, SOMALIA – Somalia’s prime minister has travelled to Galmudug to seal a deal over the state’s leadership, sources say. Hamza Abdi Barre arrived in Dhusamareb as talks neared a handover of power to Liban Ahmed Hassan, the man President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is backing. His staff and security reached the city first. The trip signals that Villa Somalia wants the Galmudug leadership settled on its own terms, and soon.
A Handover in the Making
The talks are far along. According to Garowe Online, the discussions involve Galmudug President Ahmed Abdi Kariye, known as Qoorqoor, and the chief of the National Intelligence and Security Agency. The prime minister is expected to close the remaining gaps on the Galmudug leadership. The aim is a transfer of power to Liban, who awaits the result of peace talks with two rival contenders.
Speed is the point. Hassan Sheikh wants the matter sealed before national elections. A friendly Galmudug would help his hand. So his prime minister flew in to push the deal over the line.
The plan is simple on its face. Mogadishu wants one man to win. It wants the other two to step aside. Peace talks are meant to buy them off. A deal would then hand Liban the Galmudug leadership without a real vote.
The choreography is familiar. The intelligence chief had already arrived in Galmudug as tensions rose; now the prime minister follows to finalise the Galmudug leadership question. Staff and guards moved in ahead of him. Each step points to a settlement managed from Mogadishu rather than chosen freely in Dhusamareb.
Who Is Liban Shuluq
The favoured man is not a neutral figure. Liban Ahmed Hassan, widely known as Liban Shuluq, is a former militia commander tied to military logistics in Galmudug. Critics see his rise as the point of the whole exercise. They argue Villa Somalia wants a loyal hand on the Galmudug leadership rather than a genuine contest.
Deni’s Galmudug allies are wary. They have long warned against a Southwest-style result. They want a process agreed by all sides rather than a coronation. To them, a deal cut in Mogadishu is no deal at all. It is a takeover dressed as a handover.
Galmudug has already cried foul once. The state accused the federal election chief of rigging its vote for Liban. It also rejected federal elections with a show of force. So the current push to crown him carries a long backstory of mistrust.
The election body is under fire too. Its chairman was filmed beside Villa Somalia’s favoured men. That sparked a political firestorm in the state. Critics say the referee has picked a side. A vote run that way settles the Galmudug leadership in name only.
Liban is no stranger to federal favour. He has served Villa Somalia’s plans before. His backers call him a stabiliser; his critics call him a placeman. Either way, his seat would rest with Mogadishu, not with the people of the state.
The Southwest Template
The pattern echoes other states. In Southwest, Villa Somalia toppled a sitting president and installed a loyalist. The Galmudug leadership fight follows the same script: pressure, reconciliation on Mogadishu’s terms, and a friendly winner. It also fits Hassan Sheikh’s wider constitutional gambit to centralise power. The International Crisis Group has warned that such managed votes risk fresh turmoil.
A managed handover would carry a cost. A leader installed from the capital owes his seat to the capital rather than to his people. That weakens the federal bargain and the trust it needs. Puntland and Jubaland are watching closely, since they fear the same playbook.
Galmudug also matters on the map. It sits in the heart of the country. It borders Puntland, Hirshabelle, and the al-Shabaab front. A friendly leader there gives Mogadishu reach in the center. So the Galmudug leadership is about far more than one state.
For now, the prime minister’s convoy is the story. If the deal holds, Hassan Sheikh will have another ally running a federal state ahead of national elections. If it fails, Galmudug could become another flashpoint. Either way, the Galmudug leadership is being decided in back rooms, and the people of the state are watching from outside the door.
That is the real flaw. The people of Galmudug have little say. The deal is cut above their heads. They are told to accept a winner picked elsewhere. That is not how trust is built, and it is not how a state is meant to choose its own.
The cost is national, not local. Each managed handover chips at the federal deal. It tells every state that loyalty, not votes, wins power. That lesson is a hard one to undo. Somalis are watching who really decides, and they will remember.
The calendar has since slipped. The national electoral commission moved the Galmudug regional council and House of Representatives vote from 20 July to 25 July and then to 30 July, with the Banaadir district council poll set for the same day and the Mogadishu mayoral vote on 5 August, while Hirshabelle was scheduled for 20 August. Each delay buys Villa Somalia time to arrange the outcome the state’s opponents feared.
