Mogadishu/Garowe — Al-Shabab today recaptured the strategic district of Moqokori from government forces—a territory liberated with much fanfare in 2022—while the Federal Government simultaneously invested $400,000 in arming militias to destabilize Puntland’s Sanaag region, according to multiple sources within the federal administration. This stark juxtaposition illuminates how President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration has transformed from a counter-terrorism force into what security analysts describe as an inadvertent ally of extremism through its systematic undermining of stable regions.
The fall of Moqokori embodies the catastrophic misallocation of resources that defines the current administration’s security strategy. Local residents, speaking through carefully protected channels due to fear of both Al-Shabab and government reprisals, paint a picture of systematic neglect following the district’s initial liberation. Promised development funds never materialized, security forces gradually withdrew to protect politically important areas, and the population found itself abandoned between an absent government and a resurgent Al-Shabab—a pattern replicated across numerous “liberated” territories.
The Puntland Ministry of Information’s statement on X captures a tragic reality, saying: “Somali Federal Government is destabilizing peace in Puntland state of Somalia causing unrest while Puntland state is waging war against ISIS and AlSHABAAB. Hasan sheikh is trying to prevent Puntland victory and defeat international Terrorists.” This accusation, while diplomatically explosive, reflects quantifiable patterns of federal behavior that prioritize political warfare over security imperatives.
The revelation that former Puntland Parliament Speaker received $400,000 in federal funds to establish militias in Sanaag—a region where Puntland maintains effective governance and security—demonstrates the depths to which the Federal Government has sunk in its campaign against regional autonomy. These funds, equivalent to the annual salaries of approximately 200 Somali soldiers fighting Al-Shabab, were diverted from counter-terrorism to fuel clan conflicts in one of Somalia’s most stable regions, embodying a perverse priority system that defies both strategic logic and moral justification.
The Anatomy of Subversion
The Federal Government’s operation in Sanaag followed a sophisticated playbook of destabilization that merits detailed examination. Mogadishu sought to exploit clan dynamics and personal grievances to fragment Puntland’s territorial integrity. This approach seeks to weaponize Somalia’s complex social fabric against its own stability.
The operation’s failure illuminates both the resilience of Puntland’s governance structures and the limitations of federal subversion. Nevertheless, the Sultan of the Warsangeli clan refused to provide protection for the federally-funded militias. This rejection forced the militia elements to flee, preventing the internecine conflict that federal planners had orchestrated—a victory for local wisdom over imported chaos.
Mogadishu then sent the Minister of Commerce and federal MPs ,attempting to reach Dhahar through Las Anod. Their mission aimed to establish federal presence in Puntland’s territory through subterfuge rather than negotiation. President Hassan Sheikh reportedly issued a last-minute order for them to stand down in Las Anod, following credible threats of arrest by Puntland security forces.
This multi-pronged approach represents an evolution in federal tactics from the crude centralization attempts of previous administrations. Yet its sophistication cannot mask its fundamental contradiction: a government that cannot secure its own capital investing precious resources in destabilizing the only regions that have achieved security autonomy.
Moqokori’s Fall: A Predictable Tragedy
Today’s recapture of Moqokori by Al-Shabab follows a depressingly familiar pattern in the Federal Government’s approach to liberated territories. Initial military operations, often conducted with significant fanfare and international support, successfully dislodge Al-Shabab from strategic locations. Presidential visits follow, featuring bold speeches about permanent liberation and imminent development. Then, as political attention shifts and resources are diverted to new priorities—including operations against federal member states—the liberated areas sink into neglect.
Local sources from Moqokori describe a gradual abandonment that began within months of liberation. Development funds announced for water infrastructure and schools disappeared into Mogadishu’s bureaucratic labyrinth. Most tellingly, the district commissioner spent more time in Mogadishu lobbying for resources than in Moqokori building governance structures—a pattern enabled by federal systems that reward political presence over administrative competence.
The security deterioration accelerated as federal forces were redeployed for political operations. Units that should have been consolidating control in Moqokori found themselves dispatched to Galmudug to influence regional elections, sent to Jubaland borders for intimidation operations, or held in Mogadishu to protect regime interests. Each redeployment created security vacuums that Al-Shabab methodically exploited, rebuilding networks, reestablishing taxation systems, and eventually returning in force.
The human cost of this abandonment extends beyond the immediate casualties of Al-Shabab’s return. Residents who cooperated with government forces during liberation now face retribution. Youth who might have chosen education or employment over extremism find themselves with neither option as government neglect and militant rule offer equally bleak futures. The social fabric torn by conflict remains unmended, creating generational wounds that will fuel future cycles of violence.
Implications for Counter-Terrorism
The Federal Government’s war against its own constituent units while losing ground to Al-Shabab creates profound dilemmas for international partners invested in Somalia’s stability. Donor countries and multilateral organizations predicate their support on unified Somali efforts against terrorism.
How can international partners justify continued budgetary support when funds are demonstrably diverted from their intended purposes? How can military assistance continue when weapons and training might be used against legitimate regional governments rather than extremist forces? These questions, previously theoretical, now demand practical answers as federal behavior forces stark choices.
Some international partners have begun quietly adjusting their engagement strategies. Direct implementation of development projects, bypassing federal structures, increases in regions where federal interference has blocked progress. Security cooperation increasingly emphasizes bilateral relationships with effective regional forces rather than exclusive focus on federal institutions.
