Mogadishu, SOMALIA – The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has received a second large arms shipment from Egypt, which is currently being offloaded at the Mogadishu Port. The arrival of the Egyptian weapons, which comes in the wake of the recent signing of a defense pact between the two countries, underscores the growing strategic alignment between Cairo and Mogadishu and has far-reaching implications for the ongoing conflict with Al-Shabab and the broader geopolitical landscape in the region.
The Egyptian arms shipment to Somalia is a clear signal of Egypt’s growing assertiveness in the Horn of Africa. By providing military assistance to the FGS, Egypt is positioning itself as a key player in the region’s security architecture and a counterweight to the influence of other regional powers, particularly Ethiopia.
Somalia’s Security Landscape
The arrival of the Egyptian arms shipment in Mogadishu must be understood within the broader context of Somalia’s evolving security landscape, which has been shaped by a range of complex and interconnected factors.
Despite years of counter-terrorism operations and the liberation of significant swathes of territory from the group’s control, Al-Shabab continues to launch high-profile attacks across the country, including the recent mortar attack on Aden Adde International Airport and the overrunning of military bases in central Somalia.
The planned withdrawal of ATMIS has further complicated Somalia’s security equation, raising concerns about the readiness of the Somali security forces to assume full responsibility for the country’s security. The recent attacks on ATMIS bases in Lower Shabelle and the challenges faced by the Somali National Army (SNA) in holding territory recaptured from Al-Shabab have highlighted the need for a more comprehensive approach to security sector reform and a greater focus on building the capacity and resilience of Somali forces.
Against this backdrop, the Egyptian arms shipment represents a potentially significant boost to the FGS’s military capabilities and a strategic attempt to shift the balance of power in the fight against Al-Shabab. By providing the Somali government with advanced weapons systems and training, Egypt is seeking to strengthen Somalia’s ability to confront the terrorist threat and assert its authority across the country.
Egypt’s Strategic Gambit
Egypt and Ethiopia have long been locked in a bitter dispute over the waters of the Nile, with Cairo viewing Addis Ababa’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as an existential threat to its water security. The arrival of Egyptian weapons in Mogadishu, coupled with the recent signing of a defense pact between the two countries, has raised concerns in Addis Ababa about the potential for a new front in the regional conflict.
For Egypt, the arms shipment to Somalia represents a strategic gambit aimed at securing a foothold in the Horn of Africa and projecting power in a region that has long been dominated by Ethiopia. By aligning itself with the FGS and providing military assistance to Mogadishu, Egypt is seeking to challenge Ethiopia’s regional hegemony and assert its own influence in a strategically vital part of the world.
At the same time, the Egyptian arms shipment has the potential to further complicate Somalia’s already fraught relationship with Ethiopia, which has long played a key role in the country’s security architecture. The deployment of Ethiopian troops in Somalia, particularly in the Southwest State, has been a major point of contention between the two countries, with the FGS viewing the presence of non-ATMIS Ethiopian forces on its soil as a violation of its sovereignty.
The arrival of Egyptian weapons in Mogadishu, coupled with the growing strategic alignment between Cairo and Mogadishu, risks exacerbating these tensions and creating a new fault line in the already complex geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. It also raises the stakes for the ongoing conflict with Al-Shabab, as the terrorist group seeks to exploit the divisions and rivalries among regional powers to advance its own agenda.
