Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Ambassador Taye Atske-Selassie has sounded the alarm over the supply of weapons to Somalia by external forces, warning that this influx could further destabilize the country’s fragile security situation and potentially benefit terrorist groups like Al-Shabab. Atske-Selassie’s concerns highlight the critical challenges posed by Somalia’s weak weapons and ammunition management system, which has long been plagued by poor oversight, lack of transparency, and the absence of robust control mechanisms.
The Ethiopian foreign minister’s statement comes amidst a backdrop of heightened regional tensions and a resurgence of Al-Shabab activity in Somalia, underscoring the urgent need for a more coordinated and strategic approach to addressing the root causes of insecurity and instability in the Horn of Africa. The uncontrolled flow of arms into Somalia not only threatens to further destabilize the country but also risks fueling regional conflicts and providing a windfall for terrorist groups seeking to exploit the chaos.
Weak Weapons Management in Somalia
Somalia’s poor weapons and ammunition management system has consistently failed to provide adequate oversight and control over the flow of arms into the country. This institutional weakness has been compounded by the deep political divisions and power struggles that have plagued Somalia’s political landscape, with the federal government and the regional states often pursuing divergent and sometimes contradictory approaches to addressing security challenges.
The controversy surrounding the deployment of a large Egyptian arms shipment to the Somali National Army (SNA) in Mogadishu, which is currently being offloaded at the city’s port, has thrown these issues into sharp relief. While the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has hailed the shipment as a vital boost to its military capabilities, regional leaders have expressed concerns about the lack of transparency and consultation surrounding the move, and the potential for these weapons to be diverted or misused.
Somalia has a long history of arms diversion and proliferation, with weapons intended for government forces often ending up in the hands of militias, criminal gangs, and even terrorist groups. The country’s porous borders, weak security institutions, and the absence of a robust tracking and tracing system have made it a prime target for arms trafficking.
Ethiopia’s Concern Over Egypt’s Growing Footprint in Somalia
The recent arrival of Egyptian military aircraft in Mogadishu, carrying weapons and equipment to support the FGS, has raised alarm bells in Addis Ababa, which views Cairo’s increasing involvement in Somalia as a direct challenge to its own interests in the region.
Ethiopia and Egypt have long been locked in a bitter dispute over the waters of the Nile, with Cairo viewing Addis Ababa’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as an existential threat to its water security. The two countries have also clashed over regional influence and security, with Egypt seeking to counter Ethiopia’s growing power and assertiveness in the Horn of Africa.
Egypt’s decision to provide military assistance to Somalia is seen by Ethiopia as a calculated move to gain a strategic foothold in the region and to undermine Addis Ababa’s interests. The FGS’s increasing reliance on Egyptian support, coupled with the recent signing of a bilateral defense pact between the two countries, has heightened these concerns and fueled fears of a new proxy conflict in Somalia.
For Ethiopia, the prospect of an Egyptian-backed Somali military poses a significant threat to its own security and regional influence. Addis Ababa has long played a key role in Somalia’s security architecture, with Ethiopian troops serving as part of ATMIS and the country providing significant support to the SNA and other Somali security forces. The growing Egyptian presence in Somalia risks undermining these efforts and creating new fault lines in an already complex and fragile regional landscape
