The Cabinet of Ministers, chaired by Prime Minister Hamza Barre, has declared that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has the sole legitimacy to hold elections at every level in the country, citing the controversial and non-inclusive constitutional changes made in March of this year. The cabinet’s statement, which effectively criminalizes the recently re-elected President of Jubaland, Ahmed Madobe, and refers his case to the Attorney General, represents a dangerous escalation in the ongoing conflict between the FGS and the Federal Member States (FMS) and threatens to plunge the region into a new cycle of violence and instability.
The FGS’s latest move comes amidst reports that it has been actively recruiting local clan militias in Jubaland, particularly those affiliated with General Sahal Abdullahi Omar “Khalid,” who was appointed earlier this month as head of the Land Forces in anticipation of worsening relations with Madobe following his departure from the National Consultative Council (NCC). The deployment of these militias, coupled with the criminalization of Madobe and the FGS’s claim to exclusive electoral authority, suggests that the federal government has chosen the path of violent confrontation over dialogue and compromise, a deeply concerning development that risks further fracturing the already fragile Somali state.
The Controversial Constitutional Changes and Their Implications
The cabinet’s claim to sole electoral legitimacy is based on the controversial constitutional changes that were pushed through by the FGS in March of this year, without the participation or consent of key stakeholders such as Puntland and Jubaland. These changes, which were widely seen as an attempt by the FGS to centralize power and extend its mandate, have been a major source of tension and conflict between the federal government and the FMS, and have been rejected by many as unconstitutional and illegitimate.
By invoking these changes to justify its claim to exclusive electoral authority, the FGS is setting a dangerous precedent that could have far-reaching implications for the country’s political future. If the FGS is allowed to unilaterally impose its will on the FMS and dictate the terms of Somalia’s electoral process, it will effectively render the federal system meaningless and pave the way for a return to the kind of centralized, authoritarian rule that has long plagued the country and plunged it into civil war.
Moreover, by criminalizing Ahmed Madobe and referring his case to the Attorney General, the FGS is sending a clear message that it will not tolerate any challenge to its authority, no matter how legitimate or widely supported. This attempt to silence and intimidate one of Somalia’s most influential and respected regional leaders is a deeply troubling sign of the FGS’s growing authoritarian tendencies and its willingness to use any means necessary to maintain its grip on power.
The Recruitment of Clan Militias
Perhaps even more alarming than the FGS’s claim to exclusive electoral authority is its reported recruitment of local clan militias in Jubaland, particularly those affiliated with General Sahal Abdullahi Omar “Khalid.” The deployment of these militias in Ras Kamboni represents a significant escalation in the conflict between the FGS and Jubaland and threatens to plunge the region into a new cycle of violence and instability.
The use of clan militias by the FGS is a deeply cynical and dangerous tactic that exploits Somalia’s complex clan dynamics and risks further fragmenting the already fragile social fabric of the country. By arming and empowering these militias, the FGS is not only undermining the authority and legitimacy of the formal security forces but also creating a parallel security structure that is beholden to the interests of particular clans and individuals rather than the Somali state as a whole.
Moreover, the recruitment of these militias suggests that the FGS has already decided to pursue a policy of violent confrontation with Jubaland, rather than seeking a peaceful and negotiated solution to the current crisis. This is a deeply troubling development that risks further entrenching the divisions and grievances that have long fueled conflict and instability in Somalia, and could lead to a wider conflagration that would be devastating for the entire region.
