GAROWE, SOMALIA – On June 24, Puntland’s Ministry of Security accused the federal government of smuggling weapons into the region to ignite clan war, alleging a coordinated plan involving four foreign nations. In response, it barred all non-local security forces and blocked federal officials from entering. Mogadishu has not responded. Still, the move shows how far the effort to destabilize Puntland has now grown.
A Campaign Since 2023
None of this began this month. An alleged plan surfaced in November 2023 to destabilize Puntland in November 2023. After a late-night meeting in Mogadishu involving President Hassan Sheikh, NISA chief Mahad Salad, and the Puntland figure Khadar Farole, a militia tied to the Aran Jaan network was seen moving into Garowe. Sources alleged the federal side had passed funds to stir unrest.
The timing was no accident. Puntland was deep in its own election season. Deni was fighting to keep his seat, and he warned in public that Villa Somalia was bankrolling a rival to unseat him. The secret meeting, the alleged cash, and the Aran Jaan move all fit that race. Mogadishu’s first push against Deni came through the ballot rather than the barracks. The pattern is old.
The Aran Jaan thread runs deep in Puntland’s politics; it links business interests, opposition figures, and armed men. Puntland prosecutors tied figures around it to deadly clashes in Garowe in May 2023. By Garowe’s account, Mogadishu has long leaned on such proxies, money, and clan rivalry to weaken the state from within.
When the ballot route stalled, the pressure only shifted. Puntland withdrew recognition of the federal government in 2024 over disputed charter changes. Mogadishu then turned to money and militias inside the state. Puntland officials say Hassan Sheikh even boasted in 2025 of recruiting allied fighters to unseat Deni. The 1,376 federally-paid troops are the fruit of that boast.
Seen together, the moves form one pattern. First came the pre-election cash and proxies. Then came the charter fight and secret recruiting. Now come the guns. The tools change, yet the drive to destabilize Puntland holds firm. The current build-up is the same playbook, only with heavier weapons.
The 54th Division Flashpoint
The newest tool wears a uniform. Mogadishu named Gen. Jimale Jama’ Takar, a former Puntland commander, to lead the army’s 54th Division in Garowe; Puntland forces, by some reports, plan to arrest him if he returns. The unit rests on a payroll Puntland calls a weapon. Its security adviser says 1,376 soldiers in the region are paid straight from Mogadishu, which bypasses Puntland’s command. It is the armed face of the push to destabilize Puntland.
That is the mechanism behind the wider plan to destabilize Puntland. The scheme is set out in Mogadishu’s plan to destabilize Puntland. Most names on the rolls are ghosts, critics say, while the few real recruits drift toward piracy. The 54th Division gives the campaign a flag and a budget, but little real combat value. On paper it is an army. In truth it is a tool.
Where It Leads
Puntland has asked the United Nations to restore the arms embargo lifted in 2023. It warns that federal heavy weapons are now turned on the member states. It also points to Southwest, where Villa Somalia ousted a sitting president, as the fate it means to avoid. Deni has separately accused Hassan Sheikh of creating pirate gangs and dismantling federalism.
The deeper danger is shared. While Mogadishu works to destabilize Puntland, al-Shabaab and Islamic State gain room to move; Puntland’s forces are among the few that fight both, often with little federal help. A war between Mogadishu and its strongest state would pull those guns off the real enemy. It would also reward the jihadists with the disorder they have sought for two decades. For now, the guns are quiet; few expect them to stay that way. The stakes are high. The timing is worse.
The military turn arrived on schedule. Puntland forces ambushed a column of the federal-aligned Puntland Security Force in the Laag area south of Bosaso on 21 July, captured personnel, seized technical vehicles and ordered any remaining federal-aligned units to surrender. Garowe had already accused the federal government in late June of smuggling weapons to provoke civil war, an allegation Mogadishu has never answered, and by 26 July it was warning that federal movements around Galkayo risked a second front.
