Mogadishu, SOMALIA – The National Consultative Council (NCC) convened to discuss, among other things, the pressing issue of Federal Member State (FMS) elections. The meeting saw a divergence of opinions among the participants, with Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland and Abdiasis Laftagaren of Southwest proposing to hold indirect elections, while President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud firmly rejected any option other than direct elections. President Mohamud’s rejection of any electoral options other than direct elections may seem like a principled stand for democracy, but a closer examination reveals a more cynical motive. By setting an unrealistic standard for FMS elections, the president is effectively creating a pretext for a “technical extension” of the current leaders’ terms.
The fact that local direct elections, which were supposed to be held across south and central Somalia by June 30, 2024, according to the NCC agreement of May 2023, are nowhere near being realized is a clear indication that the government is not serious about fulfilling its electoral promises. The absence of any concrete steps towards voter registration or the establishment of a legal framework for these elections suggests that the deadline is nothing more than a political smokescreen.
In reality, the president’s insistence on direct elections is a calculated move to perpetuate the status quo and maintain his grip on power, along with that of his allies. By making the holding of elections contingent on conditions that are virtually impossible to meet in the current political and security climate, the president is setting the stage for a de facto extension of his own term and those of the FMS leaders.
Overdue Mandates and Political Impunity
The NCC meeting has also brought to light the alarming trend of FMS leaders overstaying their mandates with impunity. Abdiasis Laftagaren of Southwest has already been in power for 16 months beyond his legal term, while Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland has exceeded his mandate by a year. Instead of being held accountable for these blatant violations of democratic norms, these leaders are being rewarded with the prospect of even longer tenures.
The president’s tacit endorsement of these extended terms, under the guise of holding direct elections, sets a dangerous precedent for the country’s democratic future. It sends a message that political leaders can flout the rules with impunity and manipulate the electoral process to serve their own interests.
Moreover, the idea that the NCC members themselves may seek to extend their own terms until 2026, coinciding with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) elections, is a further indication of the endemic problem of political leaders clinging to power at all costs. This not only undermines the credibility of the NCC as a decision-making body but also erodes public trust in the country’s democratic institutions.
Undermining the Fight Against Al-Shabab
The political maneuvering and uncertainty surrounding the electoral process have far-reaching consequences beyond the realm of democracy. The focus on extending political terms and consolidating power diverts attention and resources away from the urgent task of combating Al-Shabab, the extremist group that continues to pose a grave threat to Somalia’s security and stability.
The lack of clear and legitimate leadership at both the federal and regional levels hampers the coordination and effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts. It creates a vacuum of authority that Al-Shabab can exploit to expand its influence and carry out attacks with impunity.
Furthermore, the political infighting and jockeying for power that inevitably accompany such extensions of terms create a climate of instability and mistrust that undermines the unity and resolve needed to confront the terrorist threat. It saps the morale of the security forces and weakens the public’s confidence in the government’s ability to protect them.
Ultimately, the NCC’s electoral charade is a betrayal of the Somali people’s aspirations for a democratic, stable, and prosperous future. By prioritizing their own political survival over the country’s long-term interests, the president and his allies are perpetuating a cycle of dysfunction and impunity that has plagued Somalia for decades.
The Somali people deserve leaders who are committed to genuine democratic reforms, not those who pay lip service to the idea of direct elections while working behind the scenes to entrench their own power. They deserve a government that is transparent, accountable, and responsive to their needs, not one that is beholden to the narrow interests of a political elite.
