Southwest State, a federal member state of Somalia, and Somaliland, the self-declared independent region, have both issued statements that reflect their strategic alignment with Ethiopian interests, highlighting the fractured nature of Somalia’s political landscape. Southwest State’s declaration of support for Ethiopian forces while opposing Egyptian troop deployment represents a significant development. This stance not only challenges the authority of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in Mogadishu but also reveals the depth of Ethiopia’s influence in certain parts of the country.
Somaliland’s opposition to Egyptian troop deployment, while not explicitly supporting Ethiopian forces, aligns with its longstanding close relationship with Addis Ababa. This position must be viewed in the context of Somaliland’s recent controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ethiopia, which has been a source of significant tension with the FGS.
Ethiopia as the “First Enemy”
In a development that marks a significant escalation, anti-Ethiopia ideology is being officially propagated within the ranks of the Somali National Army (SNA). This ideological shift, which labels Ethiopia as Somalia’s “First Enemy,” represents a dramatic turn in the complex dynamics of Horn of Africa politics and raises serious questions about the future of Somalia-Ethiopia relations.
The characterization of Ethiopia as Somalia’s primary adversary within the SNA’s official discourse signifies a fundamental realignment of Somalia’s strategic posture in the region. This ideological stance will have far-reaching implications for regional stability, counter-terrorism efforts, and the delicate balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
The roots of this anti-Ethiopia sentiment can be traced to historical grievances, including past conflicts and territorial disputes. However, its current manifestation within the SNA suggests a more immediate catalyst, linked to recent regional developments such as the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU and Ethiopia’s perceived encroachment on Somali sovereignty. This aspect of Somalia’s regional power struggle adds a volatile new dimension to an already complex situation.
The promotion of an anti-Ethiopia ideology within the SNA has significant implications for regional security and could undermine years of efforts to build cooperative security arrangements in the fight against Al-Shabab and other extremist groups. The effectiveness of regional counter-terrorism initiatives, which have relied heavily on cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia, could be severely compromised if this ideological shift translates into operational policies.
The Egyptian Factor
The deployment of Egyptian military forces in Somalia, which has triggered these divergent responses, represents a significant new factor. Egypt’s growing military presence in the country must be understood in the context of its longstanding rivalry with Ethiopia, particularly over Nile water rights and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project.
By establishing a military foothold in Somalia, Egypt gains a strategic advantage in its broader regional contest with Ethiopia. This move not only provides Egypt with a potential counterweight to Ethiopian influence but also allows it to project power in the strategically crucial Horn of Africa. The implications of this development extend far beyond Somalia’s borders, potentially reshaping the security dynamics of the entire region.
The anti-Ethiopia ideology within the SNA could potentially align with Egyptian interests, creating a convergence of military doctrine and external strategic objectives. This alignment could further complicate Somalia’s regional power struggle, potentially drawing the country deeper into the broader Egypt-Ethiopia rivalry.
The current situation, with different parts of Somalia aligning with competing external powers and ideologies, raises serious concerns about the fragmentation of the country’s security landscape. Somalia’s regional power struggle has created a scenario where the central government, federal member states, and breakaway regions have conflicting security arrangements and allegiances. This fragmentation could severely undermine efforts to establish a coherent national security strategy and effectively combat threats such as Al-Shabab.
The anti-Ethiopia stance within the SNA, juxtaposed against the pro-Ethiopia positions of entities like Southwest State and Somaliland, creates a particularly volatile mix. This ideological divide within Somalia could lead to internal conflicts and further weaken the country’s ability to address security challenges cohesively.
