Afgoye, SOMALIA – The devastating multi-pronged attack launched by Al-Shabab on Afgoye town yesterday serves as a reminder of the ongoing threat posed by the extremist group and the dire consequences of the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) misplaced priorities. As the FGS continues to focus more on political infighting and deploying troops to fight against Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe in Ras Kamboni, Al-Shabab has seized the opportunity to intensify its attacks in and around Mogadishu, exploiting the security vacuum created by the government’s neglect.
The Afgoye attack, which included a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) assault on two military bases outside the town and a person-borne IED (PBIED) within the city, shows Al-Shabab’s resilience and adaptability in the face of half-hearted counter-terrorism efforts. It also highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach to addressing the root causes of extremism and instability in Somalia, rather than the piecemeal and politicized measures that have characterized the FGS’s response thus far.
Politics Over Security
The FGS’s preoccupation with political infighting and its campaign to undermine the authority of federal member states like Jubaland has come at a heavy cost to Somalia’s security and stability. By prioritizing the deployment of troops to Ras Kamboni to fight against Ahmed Madobe, the FGS has effectively diverted critical resources and attention away from the fight against Al-Shabab, leaving vulnerable populations exposed to the group’s increasingly brazen attacks.
This misallocation of resources is particularly egregious given the recent surge in Al-Shabab activity in and around Mogadishu, which has included a series of high-profile attacks on government officials, security forces, and civilian targets. Al-Shabab has demonstrated its ability to strike at the heart of the capital, despite the government’s claims of progress in the fight against terrorism.
The FGS’s decision to prioritize political infighting over security is deeply damaging to Somalia’s long-term stability and development. By undermining the authority of federal member states and sowing discord among the country’s diverse clans and regions, the government is creating a fertile ground for extremism and instability to take root. This is particularly true in areas where the government’s presence is weak or contested, where Al-Shabab has been able to establish parallel governance structures and exploit local grievances to gain support.
Exploiting the Security Vacuum
Al-Shabab’s attack on Afgoye town is an indication of the group’s resurgence and its ability to exploit the security vacuum created by the FGS’s misplaced priorities. The multipronged nature of the assault, which included both SVBIEDs and a PBIED, demonstrates Al-Shabab’s tactical sophistication and its ability to coordinate complex operations across multiple locations.
Al-Shabab is seeking to stretch the government’s security forces thin and create a sense of chaos and insecurity among the local population. This strategy is consistent with the group’s long-standing approach of using asymmetric warfare to compensate for its inferior military capabilities and maintain a steady stream of recruits and resources.
The Afgoye attack also underscores Al-Shabab’s ability to adapt to changing circumstances and exploit new opportunities for violence and instability. As the government’s attention has been focused on political infighting and the deployment of troops to Ras Kamboni, Al-Shabab has been able to regroup and intensify its attacks in other parts of the country, particularly in and around Mogadishu. This has included a series of high-profile attacks on government officials, security forces, and civilian targets, as well as the establishment of parallel governance structures in areas where the government’s presence is weak or contested.
