In a stunning display of political brinkmanship, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has declared the recent election of Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe null and void. This provocative statement, delivered at the Villa Somalia mosque today, comes in the heels of the deployment of Somali National Army (SNA) forces and clan militias in the strategic port town of Ras Kamboni, a move widely interpreted as a thinly veiled threat of an impending attack on the regional capital, Kismayo.
The FGS’s latest maneuver in Jubaland is part of a broader pattern of behavior that has seen the federal government prioritize the consolidation of power and control over the urgent needs of the Somali people, including security, stability, and economic development. By stoking clan tensions, undermining regional security forces, and diverting resources away from the fight against Al-Shabab, the FGS is not only jeopardizing the hard-won gains of the past decade but also setting the stage for a new cycle of violence and instability that could engulf the entire region.
A Dangerous Escalation in Jubaland
President Hassan Sheikh’s declaration that Ahmed Madobe’s election is null and void represents a dangerous escalation in the long-simmering tensions between the FGS and the Jubaland administration. By unilaterally rejecting the outcome of a democratic process and deploying military forces to Ras Kamboni, the FGS is sending a clear message that it is willing to use force to impose its will on the region, regardless of the consequences for Somalia’s fragile federal system.
The choice of Ras Kamboni as the staging ground for the FGS’s military buildup is particularly revealing. Located far from Kismayo and separated from the city by Al-Shabab-controlled territory, the area has little strategic value in terms of military operations. Instead, it appears to have been selected primarily because it is the clan stronghold of the new commander of the SNA’s land forces, General Sahal Abdullahi Umar “Khalid”.
The deployment of SNA forces and clan militias to Ras Kamboni also raises serious questions about the FGS’s commitment to the fight against Al-Shabab. By diverting resources and manpower away from the front lines and towards a politically motivated confrontation with Jubaland, the government is effectively creating a security vacuum that the extremist group is all too eager to exploit. This is a reckless and short-sighted approach that risks undoing the hard-won gains of recent years and plunging the region back into chaos and violence.
A Tale of Two Narratives
President Hassan Sheikh’s accusation that Ahmed Madobe does not want to expand his control beyond Kismayo is not only baseless but also deeply hypocritical. In reality, it is the FGS’s own policies that have undermined security and stability in Jubaland, from the arming of clan militias to the encouragement of defections from the regional security forces.
Contrary to the president’s claims, Jubaland forces have made significant progress in recent months, including the opening of the Kismayo-Afmadow road, which had been under Al-Shabab control for more than a decade. This achievement, which required coordination, discipline, and bravery on the part of Jubaland troops, stands in stark contrast to the FGS’s own record of mismanagement and neglect.
The FGS’s policy of arming clans and encouraging defections from the Jubaland administration is particularly egregious. By weakening the very forces that have been at the forefront of the fight against Al-Shabab, the government is effectively undermining regional security and creating a permissive environment for extremist groups to thrive. The redeployment of Jubaland forces from defensive positions to join the FGS’s ill-conceived beachhead in Ras Kamboni, which serves no discernible military purpose, is a clear indication of the government’s skewed priorities and lack of strategic vision.
The Hypocrisy of the FGS’s Anti-Ethiopia Rhetoric
Meanwhile, the FGS released a statement today accusing Ethiopia of working against Somalia’s territorial integrity and nationhood, in response to the provision of security escorts for Jubaland’s minister of security, is a stunning display of hypocrisy and double standards. Coming from a government that has consistently sought to undermine the autonomy and legitimacy of federal member states, and that has actively encouraged the dissolution of regional security forces, this allegation rings hollow.
Moreover, the FGS’s claim that Ethiopia is responsible for clan infighting in Somalia is a clear attempt to deflect blame from its own actions, which have been the primary driver of instability and conflict in Jubaland and beyond. By arming clans and stoking long-standing rivalries, the FGS has created a tinderbox of tensions that threatens to ignite into widespread violence at any moment.
The FGS’s anti-Ethiopia rhetoric also fails to acknowledge the critical role that Addis Ababa has played in supporting Somalia’s security and stability in recent years. From the deployment of Ethiopian troops as part of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the provision of training and assistance to the SNA, Ethiopia has been a key partner in the fight against Al-Shabab and other extremist groups. The FGS’s attempts to demonize Ethiopia and portray it as an enemy of Somalia are not only disingenuous but also risk undermining the very security cooperation that has been so essential to the country’s progress.
Consequences of the FGS’s Reckless Approach
The consequences of the FGS’s reckless and short-sighted approach to Jubaland are already becoming apparent, as Al-Shabab takes advantage of the growing chaos and uncertainty to expand its influence and carry out devastating attacks. The group’s recent assault on Afgoye town, which included multiple suicide bombings and a sustained attack on military bases, is a reminder of the ongoing threat posed by extremism in Somalia, and the urgent need for a coordinated and comprehensive response.
By prioritizing political point-scoring over the fight against Al-Shabab, and by actively undermining the very forces that have been at the forefront of counter-terrorism efforts, the FGS is creating a dangerous power vacuum that extremist groups are all too eager to fill. This not only puts the lives of countless Somalis at risk but also threatens to undo the hard-won gains of the past decade, including the establishment of a functioning federal system and the gradual restoration of stability and security in many parts of the country.
The FGS’s actions in Jubaland also risk exacerbating long-standing clan tensions and creating new fault lines of conflict that could take years to heal. By openly aligning itself with certain clans and militias, and by encouraging defections and infighting within the Jubaland security forces, the government is sowing the seeds of future instability and violence. This short-sighted approach not only undermines the prospects for lasting peace and reconciliation in Somalia but also risks dragging the country back into the abyss of civil war and lawlessness.
