Dhusmareb, SOMALIA – The federal government is airlifting weapons and soldiers into regional capitals to ensure that Somalia state elections produce the outcomes Villa Somalia has already decided. Federal troops landed in Dhusmareb, the Galmudug state capital, in April carrying military supplies for an estimated 1,000 newly trained soldiers. In Jowhar, the Hirshabelle state capital, federal forces attempted to storm the residence of President Ali Gudlawe Hussein on June 6 before his personal guards turned them back. In Southwest State, the Supreme Court ratified election results on May 25 that handed President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Justice and Solidarity Party a parliamentary majority. The pattern is unmistakable. Somalia state elections have become coronations enforced at gunpoint.
The federal government’s campaign to control Somalia state elections follows the same playbook in every region. In Southwest State, Villa Somalia toppled the previous president with Turkish-backed military force and installed a loyalist through an 88-1 managed election. The Supreme Court then validated 128,276 ballots from the Southwest vote, confirming federal dominance of the state parliament. Meanwhile, that template is now being applied to Galmudug and Hirshabelle with minor variations. The weapons change. The methods stay the same.
Galmudug Under Siege
Galmudug President Ahmed Abdi Karie, known as Qoor-Qoor, rejected the federal government’s attempt to replace state officials in early May 2026. As a result, his reward was a military buildup in his own capital. The federal government airlifted military supplies to Dhusmareb on April 5, equipping nearly 1,000 troops that had recently completed training on the city’s outskirts. Mogadishu framed the deployment as a security measure and preparation for one-person-one-vote elections. However, local observers and opposition figures saw it as political intimidation.
The Critical Threats Africa File reported on June 11 that the federal government continued redeploying forces from al-Shabaab frontlines to Dhusmareb after Qoor-Qoor refused to step aside for the FGS’s preferred candidate. Furthermore, President Hassan Sheikh decreed that a close ally would be the sole candidate for Galmudug’s leadership, eliminating any pretense of competitive Somalia state elections. Armed civilians in Cabduwaaq had already taken to the streets in defiance of federally imposed elections weeks earlier. The message from Galmudug’s population was unambiguous. Yet Villa Somalia’s response was to send more troops.
Dhusmareb has grown into a strategic hub for federal military operations in central Somalia, hosting the Somali National Army’s 21st Division command. President Hassan Sheikh has personally visited the city to underscore its importance. In contrast, the troops stationed there are positioned to ensure that Somalia state elections in Galmudug go the way Mogadishu wants, and al-Shabaab is not their concern. The al-Shabaab frontlines, as a consequence, remain undermanned.
Hirshabelle’s President Besieged in His Own Home
The situation in Hirshabelle confirms that Somalia state elections across every region face the same federal interference. Specifically, federal forces deployed to Jowhar to prevent President Ali Gudlawe Hussein from contesting the upcoming election. On June 6, troops attempted to enter Hussein’s residence. His personal guards stopped them. The Critical Threats report noted that freelance journalist Hussein Mohamed confirmed the attempted breach. Nevertheless, no statement from the federal government acknowledged or explained the incident.
President Gudlawe had previously been considered a Villa Somalia ally. He supported the federal government’s broader agenda and cooperated with Mogadishu on security operations along the Shabelle River corridor. His reward for that cooperation was federal troops at his doorstep and a clear signal that his presidency was over. Consequently, the federal government’s willingness to turn on its own allies demonstrates that loyalty to Hassan Sheikh is a one-way transaction. Somalia state elections in Hirshabelle will produce a new president chosen by Mogadishu rather than by the people of the state.
A Pattern Across Every Federal State
TSD has tracked this systematic dismantling of federalism across every member state. In Jubaland, the federal government deployed troops to influence the political landscape before Ahmed Madobe triumphed despite federal pressure. In Southwest, reckless FGS tactics crumbled in Ras Kamboni but succeeded in Baidoa. President Deni has publicly accused Hassan Sheikh of dismantling the federal system and creating pirate groups. Similarly, the Puntland president opened his latest parliamentary session in Garowe on June 15 by calling the federal government’s actions “a political and legal hijacking” of the agreed constitutional framework.
The broader cost of these Somalia state elections is measured in the security vacuum they create. Every soldier airlifted to Dhusmareb or deployed to Jowhar is a soldier pulled from the counter-insurgency effort. Al-Shabaab still threatens to gain an edge over the SNA after the ATMIS withdrawal. As a result, the AU’s transition to AUSSOM requires a functioning national army focused on jihadist threats, not regional political engineering. Hassan Sheikh has made the opposite choice. He is using Somalia’s limited military resources to win Somalia state elections rather than win the war against al-Shabaab.
The federal government’s constitutional gambit extended Hassan Sheikh’s term by one year and centralized power in the presidency. When that approach met an international rebuff, he pressed forward regardless. The troop deployments to Galmudug and Hirshabelle are therefore the military enforcement of that political vision. Hassan Sheikh is not preparing Somalia for democratic elections. He is eliminating every alternative outcome before voters ever reach a ballot box. The federal states that were supposed to serve as a check on central power are being converted, one by one, into extensions of Villa Somalia. Galmudug and Hirshabelle are next on the list.
The timetable has moved repeatedly since those deployments. The electoral commission pushed the Galmudug regional council and House of Representatives vote from 20 July to 25 July and then to 30 July, set the Banaadir district council poll for 30 July and the Mogadishu mayoral vote for 5 August, and scheduled Hirshabelle for 20 August, where the state’s leaders remain deadlocked over parliamentary seats. The troops stayed in place through every delay.
