Southern Somalia’s security crisis is rapidly escalating as the Al-Shabab militant group tightens its grip around the capital city of Mogadishu. Despite years of international support and billions in aid, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) remains ineffective in confronting the insurgent threat. The government’s inability or unwillingness to act decisively raises critical questions about its competence, priorities, and dedication to countering extremism.
In recent weeks, Al-Shabab has launched relentless attacks on key supply routes leading into Mogadishu, particularly the Mogadishu-Balcad road and the Mogadishu-Afgoi road. These ambushes and hit-and-run assaults have impacted the flow of goods and people, compelling the FGS to deploy large forces in pursuit of the militants. Simultaneously, Al-Shabab has seized control of strategic bridges along the Shabelle River, including those in Sabid and Bariire, previously held by the government for over six years. Gaining control of these vital crossings has allowed the group to maneuver fighters and supplies with ease, threatening nearby towns and villages.
While the danger grows, the FGS remains complacent. Officials have downplayed Al-Shabab’s territorial gains, dismissing them as diversionary tactics. This denial starkly contrasts with the reality on the ground, where the militant group continues to encircle Mogadishu. Propaganda videos show Al-Shabab fighters conducting ambushes, establishing checkpoints, and interacting with local populations, signaling both confidence and rising local support.
The FGS’s Failing Response
The FGS’s failure to mount a strong response is particularly glaring given the vast international support it has received. Since its reformation in 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia has benefited from extensive aid aimed at strengthening security forces and governance.
Yet, the Somali National Army (SNA) remains unmotivated after almost three years of continuous fighting. Soldiers often endure years without leave and in the frontlines. Corruption, mismanagement, and political infighting further cripple the FGS’s ability to direct resources where they are needed most. Clan rivalries and factional disputes consume government attention, undermining national unity and diverting efforts away from the critical fight against Al-Shabab.
The government’s inadequate reaction to Al-Shabab’s recent territorial gains in Lower Shabelle exemplifies this dysfunction. Instead of acknowledging the severity of the threat, the FGS has minimized the group’s advances and diverted its focus elsewhere. This short-sighted approach enables Al-Shabab to strengthen its foothold, potentially facilitating further expansion.
The loss of the Sabid and Bariire bridges, in particular, poses a severe strategic setback. Without control of these critical crossings, the government’s ability to transport supplies and reinforcements is severely compromised. Al-Shabab’s control over these areas further consolidates its regional dominance, heightening the risk of a large-scale assault on Mogadishu.
The urgency of the situation demands swift and coordinated action. The FGS must confront the reality of Al-Shabab’s advances and commit to a comprehensive strategy to reclaim lost territory. Partnering effectively with international allies, addressing corruption, and restoring morale within the security forces are essential steps toward securing Mogadishu and the surrounding regions. Failure to act decisively will only embolden Al-Shabab and deepen Somalia’s security crisis.
