The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) yesterday issued a strong condemnation of what it called an “unprovoked aggression by Ethiopian forces in Doolow”. The FGS’s accusation, which was delivered in a tweet by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and an accompanying statement, has been met with skepticism and concern by many observers, who fear that it could lead to a dangerous escalation of the conflict and undermine the delicate balance of power in the Horn of Africa. According to the FGS’s statement, Ethiopian forces launched a “planned and deliberate attack” on three key bases manned by the Somali National Army (SNA), the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), and the Somali Police Force in Dolow, located in the Gedo region, at approximately 10:00 AM on Thursday morning. The statement went on to characterize the attack as a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty, the recently signed Ankara Declaration, and the principles of the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) Charter.
The FGS’s accusation call into question the sincerity and durability of the commitments made by Ethiopia and Somalia in the Ankara Declaration, which was signed just 12 days ago and hailed as a significant milestone in the normalization of relations between the two countries.
The Egypt Factor
Even as the FGS was publicly accusing Ethiopia of violating its sovereignty and the principles of the Ankara Declaration, Somali Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Moalim Fiqi was meeting with his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdel-Aty, in Cairo to discuss the strengthening of bilateral ties and the elevation of relations to a strategic partnership. The meeting, which took place on Thursday while the battle in Dolow was still ongoing, also saw the two sides announce that Egypt would be part of the post-ATMIS mission, known as the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
The timing and context of the meeting between the Somali and Egyptian foreign ministers raise significant questions about the shifting alliances and regional rivalries that are shaping the conflict in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa. Egypt and Ethiopia have long been rivals in the region, with tensions centered around issues such as the sharing of Nile waters and the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The fact that Somalia is seeking to strengthen its ties with Egypt at a time when it is accusing Ethiopia of violating its sovereignty and the principles of the Ankara Declaration suggests that the FGS may be seeking to leverage these regional rivalries to advance its own interests and put pressure on Addis Ababa. The announcement that Egypt will be part of the post-ATMIS mission in Somalia is particularly significant in this regard, as it could give Cairo a greater foothold in the country and a platform from which to project its influence and counter Ethiopian interests.
However, the FGS’s apparent embrace of Egypt as a strategic partner also risks alienating other regional actors and further complicating the already complex web of alliances and interests that underpin the conflict in Somalia.
The Implications for the Ankara Declaration
The FGS’s accusation against Ethiopia and its growing ties with Egypt also have significant implications for the Ankara Declaration and the broader prospects for regional stability and cooperation in the Horn of Africa. The Declaration, which was hailed as a significant milestone in the normalization of relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, was meant to provide a framework for the two countries to address their outstanding differences and work towards a more peaceful and prosperous future.
However, the latest developments in Dolow and the public spat between the FGS and Ethiopia over the alleged attack on Somali forces have called into question the durability and effectiveness of the Ankara Declaration. If the Declaration is seen as being violated or undermined so soon after its signing, it could erode confidence in the ability of regional actors to resolve their differences through peaceful and diplomatic means, and could lead to a further fragmentation of the region’s already fractured political and security landscape.
Moreover, the growing ties between Somalia and Egypt, and the announcement that Cairo will be part of the post-ATMIS mission in the country, risk further complicating the already delicate balance of power in the region and exacerbating existing tensions and rivalries. If Egypt’s involvement in Somalia is seen as a threat to Ethiopian interests or a challenge to its regional influence, it could lead to a dangerous escalation of the conflict and a further deterioration of the security situation in the Horn of Africa.
