Dolow, SOMALIA – In an escalation of the long-running conflict between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Jubaland regional administration, forces loyal to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have launched operations in the Gedo region, just days after suffering a humiliating defeat in their campaign to seize control of the strategic port city of Ras Kamboni. The latest clashes, which have centered around the town of Dolow, and the airlifting of troops to the regional capital of Garbaharey, have raised fears of a wider conflagration that could further destabilize the already fragile security situation in southern Somalia and create new opportunities for the extremist group Al-Shabab to expand its influence and control. The Jubaland Presidency has released a statement in response to the attack in Dolow, referring to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as “a warlord”.
The FGS’s relentless campaign against Jubaland, which has been marked by a series of provocative and reckless actions, including the deployment of troops to the region, the mobilization of clan militias, and the imposition of economic sanctions, has been widely condemned as a blatant attempt to undermine the authority of the regional administration and impose Mogadishu’s will on the people of Jubaland. The fact that these actions have coincided with a surge in Al-Shabab attacks, both in Somalia and across the border in Kenya, has only heightened concerns about the FGS’s misplaced priorities and its apparent disregard for the security and well-being of its own citizens.
The Battle for Dolow
The latest flashpoint in the FGS’s campaign against Jubaland has been the town of Dolow, located on the border with Ethiopia in the northern part of the Gedo region. Today, forces loyal to the FGS, including members of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and other militias, attempted to block the arrival of a delegation of Jubaland officials who were traveling to the town to meet with local leaders and discuss the ongoing political crisis.
According to eyewitness accounts and local media reports, the FGS-aligned forces launched a coordinated attack on the town’s airport and police station, in an apparent attempt to prevent the Jubaland delegation from landing and to assert control over key infrastructure. However, the attack was quickly repelled by Jubaland security forces, who were able to secure the airport and ensure the safe arrival of the officials.
The clashes in Dolow, which have reportedly resulted in several casualties on both sides, are a microcosm of the wider conflict between the FGS and Jubaland. The fact that the FGS was willing to resort to violence and intimidation to prevent a peaceful delegation from reaching its destination speaks volumes about the government’s lack of commitment to dialogue and reconciliation, and its willingness to put its own narrow political interests ahead of the needs and aspirations of the Somali people.
The Garbaharey Gambit
Even as the FGS-aligned forces were being beaten back in Dolow, the government was reportedly airlifting troops and equipment into the regional capital of Garbaharey since last week, in what many observers see as a prelude to a wider offensive against Jubaland. The deployment of additional forces to Garbaharey has raised fears of a potential confrontation between the FGS and Jubaland security forces, as well as local clan militias who have vowed to resist any attempt by Mogadishu to impose its will on the region.
The FGS’s decision to deploy troops to Garbaharey has been met with widespread condemnation from local leaders and civil society groups, who have warned that any attempt to seize control of the town by force could trigger a wider conflict that could engulf the entire region. The fact that the deployment has taken place without any consultation or coordination with the Jubaland administration has only added to the sense of alarm and mistrust, and has reinforced the perception that the FGS is acting unilaterally and with complete disregard for the concerns and interests of the local population.
The risks of a wider conflagration in Gedo are particularly acute given the complex web of clan and political alliances that underpin the region’s fragile peace. The Gedo region is home to a diverse array of clans and sub-clans, many of whom have long-standing grievances and rivalries that have been exacerbated by years of conflict and competition over resources and political power. The FGS’s attempt to impose its authority on the region by force, without any attempt to address these underlying tensions and grievances, risks reigniting these conflicts and creating new fault lines that could take years to heal.
Emboldening Al-Shabab
Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the FGS’s relentless campaign against Jubaland is the way in which it has diverted resources and attention away from the fight against Al-Shabab, and created new opportunities for the extremist group to expand its influence and control. Even as the FGS has been pouring troops and resources into its ill-conceived offensive against Jubaland, Al-Shabab has been stepping up its attacks across the region, targeting both Somali and foreign forces with increasing frequency and sophistication.
The latest example of this disturbing trend came today, when an Al-Shabab IED struck a convoy of Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) troops near the town of Wajir, just across the border from Somalia. The attack, which reportedly wounded several KDF soldiers, is a reminder of the ongoing threat posed by the group.
The fact that the FGS has been so preoccupied with its campaign against Jubaland, even as Al-Shabab continues to launch deadly attacks and expand its territorial control, is a damning indictment of the government’s priorities and its lack of concern for the security and well-being of the Somali people. The FGS is effectively playing into the hands of the group and undermining the hard-won gains of the past decade.
