MOGADISHU, SOMALIA – Somalia’s constitutional crisis has a powerful backer. As President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud clings to power past his term, Turkiye’s military gamble in Mogadishu keeps him standing. Turkish jets, armored vehicles, and trainers now form the spine of his security. The support looks like partnership. Yet it carries real risk. Turkiye’s military gamble ties Ankara to a disputed leader at the worst moment. If the bet fails, a decade of goodwill could fail with it.
A Decade of Deepening Ties
Turkiye has spent ten years building power in Somalia. It opened its largest overseas base, Camp TURKSOM, in Mogadishu in 2017. There it trains thousands of Somali soldiers. It also built the elite Gorgor commando units and helped place a naval task group in Somali waters. In February 2024, the two states signed a defense and economic pact. Under it, Ankara pledged to help guard Somalia’s coast and waters.
The reach goes well beyond the barracks. Turkish firms run the port and the airport in Mogadishu. Turkish schools, hospitals, and aid have reached ordinary Somalis for years. So many people came to see Ankara as a different kind of partner. That trust is now the stake in Turkiye’s military gamble.
From Partner to Prop
The shift came into view in May. On May 10, protesters filled Mogadishu against land seizures and one-man rule. The government answered with force. Two Turkish F-16 jets flew low over the city and broke the sound barrier. Turkish-supplied armored vehicles fanned out across major intersections. According to the Somali Guardian, the show of strength came days before the president’s term was due to end. Security forces killed at least one protester with live fire. So Turkiye’s military gamble took a visible form on the city’s streets.
The political backdrop made the optics worse. In March, parliament backed amendments that stretched terms from four years to five. That move pushed elections back to 2027. Critics call it a constitutional coup. The country had been sliding toward this break for months, as the LSE warned in May. The roots of the fight lie in Hassan Sheikh’s constitutional gambit. Turkish drones had also backed federal operations in Baidoa, part of the Southwest takeover that installed a Villa Somalia loyalist. That fight, too, was part of Turkiye’s military gamble. The pattern was hard to miss.
Ankara’s Denial
Turkiye rejects the charge. Its Center for Combating Disinformation called the claims “entirely unfounded.” It said Turkish soldiers have “absolutely no involvement” in Somalia’s politics or elections, as the Turkish Minute reported. Ankara insists its mission is narrow. It says the goal is to rebuild the Somali National Army, fix state bodies, and fight al-Shabaab. It also says it respects Somali rule and the will of the people. Still, the denial now sits at the center of Turkiye’s military gamble. The words point one way. The jets over Mogadishu point another. For many Somalis, the images spoke louder than the statement.
A Gamble With Goodwill
Opposition leaders see the danger plainly. Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame warned that Turkiye’s open support for the president risks deepening the crisis. He praised Ankara’s past aid but drew a line. “Elections alone do not create democracy,” he said. Real partnership, he argued, should “mean strengthening institutions rather than individuals.” That tension is the heart of Turkiye’s military gamble. Some analysts go further. The Middle East Forum argued that Turkiye holds Somalia’s constitution hostage. The charge is harsh. It is also a sign of how fast the mood has turned.
The risk runs in two directions. By backing a term-expired president, Ankara may lose the even hand that set it apart. It may also tie itself to a project the federal states reject. Puntland and Jubaland already refuse Villa Somalia’s writ, and The power grab drew an international rebuff. Galmudug, too, rejected federal elections with a show of force. So the partner Turkiye is propping up is at war with much of his own federation.
The cost is also strategic. Every month spent on political survival is a month lost against al-Shabaab, a danger laid out in a study on the group’s edge after the ATMIS exit. Turkish jets can clear a protest, but they cannot clear the insurgents from the Shabelle valleys. So Turkiye’s military gamble buys order in the capital while the real war drifts.
For now, the jets and armor keep Hassan Sheikh in place. Yet force cannot create real trust. Turkiye’s military gamble may secure a friendly president for one more season. It could also turn a trusted partner into the face of a crisis that Somalis blame for their unraveling. Ankara has bet its goodwill on one man. That is a big bet. The odds are not in its favor. The bill will come due when his protection runs out.
Ankara has since doubled down. Parliament in Turkiye extended the mandate for Turkish forces in Somalia by a further two years, a Turkish commander presented an Erdogan medal to a Gorgor brigade officer in Mogadishu in July, and Turkish intelligence took the lead in mediating between Villa Somalia and the opposition. That mediation collapsed on 27 July without a joint communique, after the opposition refused a text it judged too vague, which leaves Ankara underwriting one side of a dispute it has failed to settle.
